Daily Update Podcast for Thursday September 18, 2025

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!

Market Summary for Wednesday, September 17, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday, September 18, 2025:
Market Action on Wednesday, September 17:
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%), as widely anticipated, leading to a volatile market session.
The S&P 500 opened flat, dipped below S1 (6596), rose above R1 (6622) post-announcement, then fell to S2 (6584) and a low of 6550 before closing near 6600, down 0.1%—virtually unchanged but recorded as a down day.
Volume was slightly above average. The S&P 500 remains above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a positive trend across all time frames.
Significant intraday swings reflected emotional reactions to the Fed’s announcement rather than logical moves.
Fed and Economic Context:
The Fed’s rate cut was expected, but FOMC members are divided on future cuts: 9/19 project one more cut in 2025, 10 favor two, and one expects none. The Markets anticipate cuts in October and December 2025, with one projected for 2026.
Inflation remains “sticky” at about 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target, partly attributed to tariffs, though seen as a potential short-term issue.
Economic data:
Housing starts: +8.5% month-over-month, annualized at 1.307M (below 1.375M expected).
Building permits: -3.7% month-over-month, annualized at 1.312M (below 1.37M expected).
Weekly Mortgage Applications Index: +29.7% (refinance +57.7%, purchase +2.9%), driven by lower 10-year yields nearing 4%.
The dollar rose, and 10-year yields increased to 4.08%, staying at the lower end of the recent range.
Market Indicators and Sentiment:
Short-term indicators (e.g., StochRSI, CCI 14) show slight weakness but leaning positive. Intermediate-term indicators are mixed, with some strength and some softening.
The S&P 500 is in the +3 standard deviations channel but far from the 50-period average. It’s over 10% above the 200-day moving average, a level that historically preceded pullbacks in 2023 and 2024.
Sentiment ticked down from 58 to 57 but remains positive. The VIX is below 20.
Advance-decline ratios and accumulation distribution indicate short-term weakness but overall positive trends. Momentum oscillators (e.g., MACD, PMO) are turning positive.
Sector and Stock Highlights:
Financials outperformed, followed by staples (defensive) and communication. NVIDIA dropped 2.62% due to reports of China discouraging domestic purchases of its products.
The Dow hit an intraday all-time high above 46,000 but didn’t close there. The NASDAQ fell.
Small caps (Russell 2000) and mid-caps closed well off highs, showing neutral momentum.
Outlook for Thursday, September 18:
The S&P 500 remains positive across all time frames, with overhead resistance still in play (to be confirmed by Friday’s close).
Key levels to watch: 20-period moving averages for potential declines and 6600.
Economic data expected: Initial and continuing claims, Philadelphia Fed Index, and Leading Economic Index.
Seasonally, September 18 has a neutral-to-negative bias for the S&P and NASDAQ, with options expiration week historically mixed (up 55%, down 45%). The second half of September is typically weak.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 experienced volatility due to the Fed’s rate cut but closed nearly unchanged. Positive trends persist, but short-term momentum is softening, and the market is extended above the 200-day moving average. Seasonal weakness is a potential factor.