S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday September 12, 2025

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Market Update Summary: Thursday, September 11, 2025:
Outlook for Friday September 12, 2025:
Overall Market Performance
Major indexes (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100) hit new all-time highs, up about 0.85% on the day with above-average volume, signaling growing conviction.
Small and mid-caps outperformed on a percentage basis, broadening participation beyond mega-caps.
Gap higher open post-CPI data, held above resistance levels (R1 at 6553, R2 at 6574), closing slightly off intraday highs in a "smokestack" drift pattern.
Weekly gain: +1.63% (pending Friday close); positive across all timeframes (short, intermediate, long-term), with strengthening trends.
Economic Data Highlights
CPI: Headline up 0.4% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected, up from 0.2% prior); core up 0.3% (as expected). YoY remains above 2%; inflation broadening (more items with more than 3% annualized increases). Market reacted positively, viewing it as "friendly."
Jobless Claims: Initial at 263K (vs. 240K expected, up from 236K); continuing at 1.939M (unchanged, drifting lower but elevated). Signals potential Fed rate cuts, boosting sentiment.
Treasury Budget: Deficit at -$344.8B (improved from -$380.1B YoY), with receipts up slightly and outlays down.
Broader Market: Dollar down, 10-year yield at 4.01% (from 4.03%, nearing 4%); commodities strengthening longer-term but stocks outperforming shorter-term.
Technical Indicators
Momentum & Oscillators: Short-term conviction building (Stoch RSI, Williams %R, CCI positive; Stochastics extreme positive). Intermediate-term divergences improving. Long-term: 150-day MA turned up; watching distance from 200-day SMA (greater than 10%, potential overextension risk).
Trends & Breadth: Positive trends (ADX above MAs); smart money indicators (Chaikin, Boom) flipped positive. Advance-decline lines setting new highs (NYSE, S&P); new highs expanding. Bullish % indexes positive across S&P, NYSE, NASDAQ 100.
Overextensions: RSI short-term above 70; Aroon extreme (buyers dominant); above upper Bollinger Band; Chande Trend Meter in high zone—stall risk noted, but no reversal signal.
Volatility & Sentiment: VIX below MAs (low fear); individual investors more bearish (spread widening, positive contrarian signal). Neutral sentiment at 53 (unusually subdued at highs).
Sectors: All sectors up; materials strongest, energy weakest. Value outperformed growth; financials and healthcare (defensive) gained. Equal-weight S&P matched cap-weighted, showing broad participation.
Intermarket: Commodities/bonds positive short/intermediate; dollar negative. Copper/gold ratio at lows historically bullish (S&P +16% 1-year forward 91% of time). Recession probability low; profit margins rising (ex-Mag 7).
Key Risks & Outlook
Seasonality: Mid-September positive for now (next few days), but second half historically weak (worst half-month since 1950). Hasn't materialized yet in 2025 despite prior warnings.
Fed/Policy: Senate vote Monday on Stephen Moran's nomination; Treasury expanding Fed chair candidates. Fed focused on weakening employment/inflation; rate cuts expected.
Watch Points: Overhead resistance below current levels; potential hedging ahead of weekend/geopolitics (Middle East, Ukraine, U.S. domestic). Consumer sentiment Friday could sway; if pullback, eye 20-period MA support.
Conclusion: Positive bias short/intermediate-term (improving momentum/bias); long-term solid. Conviction rising, but monitor overextensions and seasonality for stalls. Friday seasonality mildly positive/neutral.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!