Stephanie Pomboy: The Way We Invest Is Coming To An End

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The cost of capital is rising.

Inflation may be more present in future years, especially as we re-shore manufacturing.

And as we re-shore it, we are also re-introducing our economy's exposure to the natural business cycle -- something we'd largely been able to divorce our exposure to by pushing it onto other countries during the era of Globalization.

In short: the entire framework we've been accustomed to investing in is coming to an end, warns macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy.

What will the likeliest implications be?

Watch this video to find out.

#inflation #jobs #costofcapital

0:00 - Jobs market revisions: 911,000–919,000 fewer jobs than expected, signaling weakness
3:02 - Payrolls at 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, unemployment at 4.3%, highest in years
4:40 - Stephanie’s analysis: Jobs data overstated, markets ignore economic weakness
6:47 - Markets treat revisions as a non-event, expect Fed rate cuts to offset
8:52 - Stock market overvalued relative to economic indicators, risks repricing
10:08 - Arguments for economic pickup: Tax cuts, deregulation, tariff income
12:04 - Consumer spending weak, high debt costs, and job market slowdown threaten
14:44 - Unemployment rate (4.3%) vs. Fed funds rate: Historical recession patterns
17:27 - Reshoring manufacturing: Long-term process, not immediate economic boost
19:01 - Quits rate collapse signals job insecurity despite soaring asset prices
21:10 - Great Resignation shifting to job retention, boomers may unretire
23:32 - Unemployment rate understates true weakness, millions outside labor force
24:51 - Reshoring manufacturing: Benefits and challenges, higher costs, wages
27:49 - End of globalization: Higher production costs, economic demand for liquidity
30:46 - Financial markets face volatility, reimporting business cycle
33:00 - Framework shift: Higher inflation, costlier capital reshape investing
35:31 - Adam’s outlook: Short-term bearish, medium-term bullish, long-term bearish
37:45 - Policy responses: Aggressive stimulus likely, but deficits persist
39:27 - Gold as hedge against global fiat debasement, developed world debt issues
41:34 - FOMC expectations: 25–50 bps cut, markets expect dovish tone
44:55 - Yield curve control likely if long rates resist Fed cuts
46:24 - Bond yields: Potential short-lived rally, then upward pressure from deficits
48:36 - Gold outlook: Strong gains, but expect sell-the-news correction
51:30 - Hedging gold positions with inverse ETFs to manage pullback risk
53:39 - Gold demand driven by non-Western investors, U.S. demand lags
58:44 - Corporate credit risks: $1 trillion debt due, extend-and-pretend fading
1:01:17 - Housing market pressures: High costs, job losses could trigger bust
1:02:37 - Potential “parade of horribles”: Recession, market correction, housing bust
1:04:05 - Where to follow Stephanie: macromavens.com, @SPomboy on Twitter
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