Deep Dive Update for Monday September 8, 2025

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This video provides a detailed analysis of various market indicators and charts for a "deep dive" update, prepared for Monday, September 8th, 2025. This video reviews charts not typically used in the daily videos, focusing on deeper insights into market trends. Key points include:
1. Long-Term VIX Analysis: The VIX (volatility index) is below 20, indicating a positive market environment with low fear. Momentum indicators such as the MACD and RSI show no significant signals, reflecting a lack of strong market conviction despite recent all-time highs in the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
2. Market Sentiment: Various indicators, such as the VIX-to-VVIX ratio and Ulcer Index, suggest subdued fear and a positive longer-term outlook. The MOVE Index (bond volatility) is declining, aligning with rising S&P 500 prices, which is positive.
3. Market Trends:
Large Cap Growth: Near all-time highs but showing sideways action, lacking strong upward conviction.
High Beta vs. Low Beta: Choppy, with no clear directional trend.
Large Caps vs. Small Caps: Large caps are outperforming, but small caps are gaining strength in a lower interest rate environment post a weaker-than-expected employment report.
Advance-Decline Lines: NYSE advance-decline lines show resilience in the broader market, with volume leading price, suggesting potential bullish signals.
4. Momentum and Ratios:
Momentum stocks are underperforming the S&P 500, while U.S. stocks are lagging international markets.
Retail and biotech sectors showing improvement, with retail trending upward and biotech outperforming healthcare.
5. Technical Indicators:
Short-term and intermediate-term trends remain positive, with the S&P 500 above key moving averages (20, 50, 100 periods).
Long-term trends are also positive, with no immediate concerns unless the market moves significantly away from moving averages.
The S&P 500 is holding above the Ichimoku cloud, and correlations with bonds and international markets (e.g., German DAX) show mixed signals but no major red flags.
6. Sector and Economic Insights:
Regional banks and home builders are improving due to declining interest rates.
Energy-to-bond yield ratios are stable, indicating no immediate inflation concerns.
Gold is breaking out while emerging markets show no decisive trend against developed markets.
7. Broader Market:
The NASDAQ and small caps lead in technical strength (via SCTR scores), while the Dow is lagging.
Transports are not confirming Dow highs, a potential Dow Theory non-confirmation.
The S&P 500 is climbing a "wall of worry," with no overwhelming bullish or bearish signals.
Overall, the S&P 500 appears positive but lacks strong conviction, with choppy action and mixed signals across indicators. Watching for significant shifts, such as a 10% deviation from the 200-day simple moving average or changes in key ratios, to gauge future direction.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P8GsbJ6Bnjg6rB4ywric1MDcLLZCqI-y/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!