A Truth About Something that Never Happened - Molinism’s Kryptonite - Counterfactuals & Moral Luck

This podcast explores Molinism, a sophisticated philosophical and theological system developed by Luis de Molina in the 16th century, designed to reconcile divine providence with genuine human free will. At its core is the concept of middle knowledge, which refers to God's understanding of what any free creature would freely do in any hypothetical circumstance, logically preceding His decision to create. This unique knowledge, distinct from natural knowledge (necessary truths) and free knowledge (what actually happens), allows God to meticulously plan and actualize a world where His purposes are achieved through creaturely freedom, rather than by overriding it. The discussion highlights Molinism's stark differences from deterministic views like some forms of Calvinism, its more nuanced approach compared to Arminianism's simple foreknowledge, and its active role for God in planning, distinguishing it from timeless views like the Boethian solution. The explanation also delves into the major "grounding objection" to Molinism, questioning what makes these "counterfactuals of creaturely freedom" (CCFs) true, and explores related objections such as the undermining of omnipotence, God's supposed fallibility, and the idea of subtle divine manipulation, all while grounding these complex ideas in logical, linguistic, and scriptural analysis.

"According to Molinism, logically prior to his creative decree, God knows via middle knowledge the truth value of the counterfactuals or conditionals of creaturely freedom (CFs) and thus what any possible person would do in any given circumstance. Critics of Molinism have pointed out that the Molinist God gets lucky that the CFs allow him to actualize either a world of his liking or even a good-enough world at all. In this paper, I advance and strengthen the popular critique in two ways. First, I specify the kind of luck to which God is subject, which is circumstantial moral luck. Second, and more importantly, I argue that exposure to this luck is problematic because something external to God and beyond his control determines the degree of praiseworthiness he deserves in relevant possible worlds. My main contention is that divine subjection to circumstantial moral luck raises the theoretical costs of Molinism."

Andre Leo Rusavuk, Molinism's kryptonite: Counterfactuals and circumstantial luck, The Philosophical Quarterly, Volume 75, Issue 3, July 2025, Pages 1121–1141, https://doi.org/10.1093/pq/pqae038

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