S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday Sept 4, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, September 3, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday, September 4:
Market Performance:
The S&P 500, as a whole, had a relatively uneventful day, with mega-cap stocks (notably Google & Apple) driving gains, while the broader market showed limited strength.
The S&P 500 rose 0.51% on below-average volume, filling a gap from Tuesday's session. Late-day buying supported prices, closing slightly below the R2 pivot point at 6454.
The S&P 500 recaptured the 20-period simple and exponential moving averages, shifting short-term indicators from negative to neutral/positive, though conviction remains low.
Interest rates dropped, with the 10-year yield falling from 4.28% to 4.21%, aiding stock performance.
Key Developments:
Google Ruling: A federal judge allowed Google to retain its Chrome browser and remain the default search engine on iPhones, boosting its stock and mega-cap performance.
Employment Data Focus: Markets are focused on upcoming employment reports (Thursday’s jobless claims, ADP employment, and Friday’s employment report) to gauge Federal Reserve rate cut likelihood. A Wednesday report indicated labor market weakness, potentially supporting rate cut expectations.
Fed Commentary: Fed Governor Waller supported a September rate cut, citing labor softness, while acknowledging potential near-term inflation increases. St. Louis Fed President Musalem noted weakening labor conditions but cautioned about tariff-driven inflation. Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated openness to a rate cut if the job market weakens further.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators are mixed, with no strong bullish or bearish signals. The market filled a gap from Friday to Tuesday but faces overhead resistance at 6468.
Smart money indicators (e.g., Chaiken Money Flow & Oscillator, accumulation/distribution) show strength but the Chaiken Oscillator is nearing overbought levels.
The VIX remains below 20, with no significant volatility spike, though seasonality suggests potential increases in September.
Growth-to-value ratios show improvement but remain below declining moving averages for mid and small caps, indicating continued defensive market behavior.
Economic Data:
Weekly MBA mortgage applications fell 1.2%, factory orders dropped 1.3% (better than expected), and JOLTS job openings declined to 7.4 million, signaling labor market softening.
Homeownership is declining, with renters increasing, and consumer spending expectations for the holiday season are down 5% year-over-year citing rising costs and tariffs.
Market Outlook:
Thursday and Friday: Key employment data (initial/continuing jobless claims, ADP employment, trade balance, unit labor costs, productivity, and ISM services) could drive market direction. A weak employment report on Friday may solidify rate cut expectations but could also spark concerns about economic deterioration.
Seasonal Trends: September historically underperforms, particularly in the second half, with negative returns since 1950.
Technical Outlook: The market is positive across all timeframes but faces resistance at 6468. Intermediate-term weakness persists, and momentum indicators (e.g., MACD, PMO) remain negative, suggesting caution.
Sentiment: Neutral at 54 (down from 62), reflecting choppy market conditions and lack of conviction.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a wait-and-see mode, with focus on upcoming employment data to determine Federal Reserve actions. While short-term indicators have improved, intermediate-term weakness and overhead resistance suggest caution. Mega-caps are driving gains, but broader market participation is currently lacking, and seasonality points to potential volatility in September.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!