The Wire - August 29. 2025

//The Wire//2300Z August 29, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS INCREASE IN MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTH AMERICA. MINNEAPOLIS SHOOTING RESULTS IN INCREASED THREAT RISK AS MANY PEOPLE DECLARE SUPPORT FOR THE KILLER.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Indications and warnings are growing regarding what may be a general increase in hostilities throughout the region. Yesterday, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom voted to begin the process of re-imposing the United Nations sanctions on Iran (the same sanctions that were lifted in 2015). In Gaza, the conflict continues as before, with the statements by the White House over the past few weeks giving the green light for another expansion of Israeli operations in Gaza City. This morning, the White House revoked the diplomatic travel visas of Palestinian Authority diplomats, so that they cannot travel to testify before the United Nations General Assembly.

Analyst Comment: This could be nothing, or this could be the start of something. Overnight, Turkey inexplicably closed their airspace to all Israeli aircraft and has allegedly cut all economic ties with Israel. Separately, Germany issued warnings to all of their citizens in Iran to leave the country, mostly out of fear of retaliatory attacks. So far, these are very early indications of trouble, but the history of the region is proof that very little is needed for a war to kick off again.

South America: US Naval operations continue off the coast of Venezuela, as Venezuelan forces increase territorial defense operations. Several low-level military exercises have been undertaken in Venezuela, and coastal gunboat patrols have increased over the past few days.

Analyst Comment: So far, this is all just posturing from both parties. Venezuela has no real defense against American forces, so any real resistance to this "naval diplomacy" effort from the United States will carefully avoid any direct confrontation.

-HomeFront-

Florida: This morning a mass casualty event was reported on I-95 near Ives Dairy Road in Miami. 29x people were hospitalized due to injuries sustained when a semi truck failed to observe traffic congestion, rear-ending a long line of halted vehicles. The driver has not been identified, but is expected to face charges.

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Analyst Comments: So far, the fallout from the Minneapolis Church Shooting has left more questions than answers. From a tactical standpoint, the shooter very clearly stated that he selected this Church as a target due to the staff being unarmed and thus unlikely to fight back. The killer also had drawn very crude sector sketches of the Church interior, mapping out the entry and exit points in the Nave. The killer also made statements of specifically avoiding behavioral actions that might tip off authorities that he was planning this attack, indicating that this had been in the works for some time.

Similarly, online rhetoric has been exceptionally severe following this attack, with hundreds (if not thousands) of accounts online supporting the killer. There is even one company selling T-shirts with the killers face, declaring support for his actions. One Massachusetts man posted a video online encouraging further attacks on Christian institutions, and many others have also declared the intent to carry out other attacks (though without providing specific and actionable details). In short, the online atmosphere among the usual suspect platforms (Reddit, Discord, etc), has indicated that the threat of copycat attacks is higher than usual. It's hard to say how serious most of these threats are, however the sheer number of people who have expressed support for this attack should not be ignored and should be taken seriously out of an abundance of caution.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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