S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday August 15, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, August 14, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, August 15, 2025:
Thursday Market Recap:
S&P 500: Set a new all-time high, up 0.03%, but lacked strong follow-through. Closed near the 6468 weekly resistance level, a pivotal point to watch.
NASDAQ & NASDAQ 100: Declined slightly (NASDAQ 100 down 0.07%), underperforming the S&P.
Mid and Small Caps: Weaker after recent strength, impacted by rising interest rates and inflation concerns, as they rely heavily on borrowing.
Growth vs. Value: Growth outperformed value at the mega-cap level, but mid and small-cap growth lagged.
Market Dynamics:
Stronger-than-expected PPI (0.9% vs. 0.2% expected) raising inflation fears, reducing expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September (market now leans toward 25 basis points).
Choppy trading with a gap lower open due to PPI reaction, but prices climbed above the daily pivot (6464) and closed slightly positive.
Volume remained below average, and indicators showed mixed signals with some positive momentum but no strong conviction.
Geopolitical Factors: Upcoming talks between Putin and Trump, trade deals, tariffs, and Middle East tensions adding uncertainty.
Sector Performance: Financials and healthcare showed some resilience; semiconductors hit new highs. Mega caps (e.g., Amazon +2.86%) outperformed, while Tesla (-1.08%) lagged but stayed above moving averages.
Technical Indicators:
Overhead resistance at 6468 on the weekly chart is key.
Short-term indicators (e.g., Williams %R, CCI, Stochastics) remain positive. Intermediate-term indicators such as the CMB composite, Chande Trend Meter and Boom (50) are extreme.
VIX rose slightly to the high 14s, indicating lower fear but a slight uptick in caution.
Friday Outlook:
Key Levels: Watch the 6468 weekly resistance on the S&P 500. A close above signals bullish continuation; below suggests resistance is holding.
Economic Data: Retail sales (most significant), Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and consumer sentiment reports could influence markets.
Trends:
Short and intermediate-term trends are strengthening, but negative divergences persist and need more improvement.
Long-term trend remains positive.
Seasonal Context: August typically weak, but no significant decline yet. Post-election years historically weaker during this period.
Sectors: Financials and healthcare may see bargain hunting; small and mid-caps vulnerable to inflation and rate concerns.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive but faces resistance at 6468. Inflation concerns from PPI and upcoming economic data (especially retail sales) will be critical. Geopolitical developments and sector performance (notably financials and semiconductors) will also drive sentiment. A strengthening trend is emerging, but conviction is moderate, and negative divergences warrant caution.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!