S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday August 13, 2025

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Market Summary for Tuesday, August 12, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, August 13, 2025
Tuesday's Market Action:
S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 hit new all-time highs, driven by a market-friendly CPI report that met expectations (total CPI up 0.2% month-over-month, core CPI up 0.3%, annualized at 2.7% and 3.1%, respectively).
The S&P 500 rose 1.13% with a higher open, breaking above the R1 pivot level (6399) to R2 (6427), closing at the intraday high without significant selling pressure.
Volume was below average, indicating a potential negative divergence despite the upward move.
Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed, and semiconductors showed strength.
The markets anticipate a 0.25% Fed rate cut in September, supported by a declining dollar and a 10-year yield at 4.29% (below 4.5%).
Sentiment improved (63, up from 58), and technical indicators showed positive momentum (Williams %R, CCI, stochastics) but some negative divergences in the intermediate term still exist.
Key Technical Observations:
Positive across all timeframes, with short-term indicators showing increasing conviction (e.g., Williams %R, CCI charts).
Negative divergences persist, particularly in the intermediate term (e.g., summation index declining, volume dropping).
Overhead resistance levels near 6450 and 6468 (weekly chart) are critical to watch.
The S&P 500 is not overly concerned about inflation, and the Fed's "soft landing" scenario (no recession) remains intact.
Economic Data:
Treasury budget deficit widened to -$291.1B (vs. expected -$140B).
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 (from 98.6).
CPI data showed a slight uptick but aligned with forecasts, calming inflation fears.
Wednesday Outlook:
A light day for economic reports, with only the MBA Mortgage Applications Index due.
Potential for continued buying or consolidation ahead of Thursday and Friday’s major reports (jobless claims, PPI, retail sales, industrial production).
Seasonality suggests a neutral-to-negative bias for the S&P on August 13, with historical post-election year weakness not yet materializing.
External factors (e.g., Putin-Trump meeting, trade deals, tariffs) could influence market sentiment.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive across all timeframes, with improving short-term momentum but lingering intermediate-term negative divergences. Overhead resistance levels and lower volume warrant caution. Wednesday may see choppy trading due to a light economic calendar, with focus on whether the market sustains its upward trend or encounters resistance.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!