2 months ago

MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN INTENSIFIES takes path #CARIBBEAN #VIRGINISLANDS #PUERTORICO #LEEWARDISLANDS #DOMINICANREPUBLIC #TURKSANDCAICOSISLANDS #BAHAMAS
#ERIN STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
... #FORECAST TO BECOME A #HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL #TROPICALSTORMERIN
ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
#TROPICALSTORM #MAJORHURRICANE

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.0N 38.3W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2630 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across eastern
Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua and adjacent marine areas. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while
the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Some limited
tropical or subtropical development is possible through early
Wednesday as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the
Gulf Stream. The system is expected to move northward over cooler
waters later on Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.