S&P 500 Weekly Update for August 11-15, 2025

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Market Update Summary: August 4–8, 2025
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 erased prior losses, ending the week of August 4–8 up 2.43% with above-average volume, despite a below-average volume breakout on Friday.
Dow: +1.3%, NASDAQ: +3.9%, S&P 500: +2.4%, Small Caps: +2.4%.
Mega-cap stocks, particularly Apple (+8.4%), drove gains, fueled by an additional $100B capital investment increase from the $500B Already announced.
Semiconductor index up 0.8%, supported by tariff exemptions for domestic chip production.
Economic and Policy Context:
Light schedule of economic reports, but the markets reacted positively to earnings and trade/tariff news from the White House.
10-year yield rose to 4.29%, still below the concerning 4.5% level.
St. Louis Fed President Musallam suggested persistent inflation due to tariffs but remained open to rate changes.
The markets anticipate an 88.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, influenced by a weaker-than-expected employment report last week.
Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 is in a weakening non-trend (below 20), but positive as the green line remains above the red.
Negative divergences noted, with fewer new highs and mega-caps driving performance.
Sentiment improved to 59 (positive) from 50 (neutral), with active asset managers showing extreme readings, suggesting caution.
VIX dropped below 20, indicating reduced fear, but August/September historically see higher volatility.
Sector Performance:
Strong sectors: Discretionary, Tech, Staples (defensive). Weak sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Healthcare.
Utilities strong (potential growth due to EV/AI/crypto demand), but defensive sectors underperformed.
NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 outperformed, reflecting growth leadership.
Upcoming Week (August 11–15):
Key data: CPI, PPI, retail sales may shift market sentiment.
Historical August/September weakness in post-election years noted, though not yet evident so far in 2025.
Concerns:
Below-average volume on Friday’s breakout.
Negative divergences in momentum indicators (e.g., PMO, bullish percent index).
Mid-caps and small caps lagging, with financials/S&P 500 ratio signaling weakness.
Copper/gold ratio declined as a possible economic warning sign.
Positive Indicators:
Strong earnings (81% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates by 8.4%).
Persistent “buy the dip” mentality among investors.
NASDAQ 100 set a new all-time high on Friday, with S&P 500 close to its peak.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 showed resilience, driven by mega-caps and positive earnings, but negative divergences and historical seasonality warrant caution. Upcoming economic data and tariff developments will be critical for the week ahead.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!