The Wire - August 4, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z August 4, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE BOMB MAKERS ARRESTED AROUND THE USA. CHILEAN HEIST CREW MEMBER ARRESTED AFTER ATM ROBBERY INVOLVING EXPLOSIVES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN MONTANA, SUSPECT AT LARGE. MIGRANT CRIME CONTINUES TO INFLAME TENSIONS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.//

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-International Events-

United Kingdom: Immigration scandals have continued as another assault case has come to light over the past few days. A young child was assaulted by two Afghan "refugees" in Birmingham last week, who have been identified as Ahmad Mulakhil and Mohammad Kabir.

Analyst Comment: This case has served as yet another catalyst for public anger to rise, as the British government continues to not just allow these horrific crimes to occur, but is actively working to protect the criminals and prosecute those expressing anger about these attacks. In this case, Warwickshire Police are under fire for deliberately requesting local officials to withhold the details of this crime from the public, to protect the criminals.

-HomeFront-

New York: Over the weekend a minor earthquake was observed throughout New York City and New Jersey, with an estimated magnitude of 3.0. No major damage was reported.

Montana: A mass shooting was reported at the Owl Bar in Anaconda on Friday. Authorities have identified the shooter as Michael Paul Brown, who was seen fleeing the scene in a stolen pickup truck (which was found some time later Friday night). 4x people were killed during the engagement, and a local manhunt remains underway with authorities theorizing that he may still be in the local area.

Tennessee: An IED Factory was discovered at the home of a local man in the unincorporated township of Old Fort on Friday. Kevin Wade O’Neal was arrested for making threats against public officials, and during the arrest officers allegedly smelled something burning in a back room. This resulted in the discovery of 14x explosive devices, at least one of which had been ignited (but failed to detonate).

Analyst Comment: Much like other IED discoveries as of late, the photo evidence of the devices themselves confirm that these devices were exceptionally crude in their construction, indicating the user had little to no training in the construction of explosives.

California: One of the members of an infamous Chilean heist crew was arrested in Newport Beach, after he attempted to use explosives to breach an ATM at a local Target store two weeks ago.

Analyst Comment: The use of explosive breaching in robbery cases is rare, but becoming more common around the world following this being the robbery method of choice in South Africa. Regarding this specific case, the use of explosives in California is common enough that this did not get national news coverage until it was revealed that the man who was arrested, was a member of the Chilean heist crew which conducted several bank heists throughout the west coast last year.

California: In a separate case, a bomb maker was arrested at his residence in Long Beach Friday afternoon, following an investigation by the FBI. Mark Lorenzo Villanueva was arrested after he sent money to what he thought was an affiliate group of ISIS. During the search of Villanueva's residence, an Improvised Explosive Device was found.

Washington D.C. - Scandal has erupted following the discovery of a new addition to Department of Homeland Security doctrine. Back in April of this year, the Department of Homeland Security published their updated terms and conditions for receiving disaster aid for FY 2025. Though it was not observed by many at the time, this morning a few mainstream media outlets became aware of this doctrine change, which now includes specific language preventing disaster aid from flowing to states which have not signed a pledge to not-boycott Israel. This pledge of allegiance specifically applies to grants for search and rescue equipment, which will be withheld from states which do not agree to these terms.

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Analyst Comments: From time to time, the American people are granted the luxury of learning a lesson before a life or death emergency occurs, which provides a much needed reality check for things such as disaster preparedness.

As with many government policies, it often takes a few months for the true scale of a scandal to become known, or for someone to find documents that are actually posted publicly. Now that the DHS policies regarding disaster aid have become more widely known, it is a good time to re-assess the impacts that this policy (and the other policies which no one has found yet) may have moving forward. In short, the Department of Homeland Security sets the Terms and Conditions for states that seek to receive disaster aid from FEMA...and the DHS just added support for Israel as a line item in those conditions.

For context, (and for those saying that the states can just by their own gear) an understanding of how the logistics of most search and rescue operations function is necessary. In almost all states, local authorities would not be able to operate at all without federal funding or grants of some kind, specifically for equipment. If a fire department needs to buy a new radio, most of the time they are able to use a small amount of state funds to pay a portion of that cost, and various federal grants pick up the rest. Considering that the bulk of most disaster relief efforts in the United States are carried out on the ground by unpaid volunteers, this means that the vast majority of all public services in the United States are heavily subsidized by the Federal government. In a perfect world, all SAR, police, fire, and EMS services would be financed and equipped at the lowest levels, with various partnerships made along the way from the local levels, to the state, and to the federal agencies managing more resources. In reality, this isn't how it works out. If a rural volunteer fire department in the middle of nowhere needs a new fire engine that costs half-a-million dollars, there is almost never enough tax money at the local or state level to pay for it, or if the states were to fund it, it would require state-level taxes to be raised to extraordinarily high levels. And now that deliberate allegiance to a foreign power is entering into this culture as a requirement for logistical support during a disaster, this is concerning.

What this means in practice, is hard to say. As concerning as this policy sounds, we must remember that (as of last year) 38x states already have anti-BDS laws in effect. Since it's already illegal to boycott Israel in 38 states it's hard to say how this will work out in practice, but it's possible friction will emerge between the states and the feds, not because the states are anti-Israel in any way, but because they aren't pro-Israel enough.

For the very few states that may choose to take a stand on this and not sign these agreements, the risk is substantial. Many states who's political leadership is simply opposed to Trump will probably want to make a stand on this, which transfers that risk to individual taxpayers. Since this policy applies to Israeli companies, there's much more opportunity for risk as well. For instance, if a state agency solicits bids for a certain product that they need, and an Israeli company places a bid to fulfill that contract, not accepting that bid could in theory result in a loss of federal grants due to this situation falling within the "discrimination" definitions set in place by the US government.

Financial impacts will also be felt directly by taxpayers (not just the state) by the implementation of this policy; just as California's mismanagement of wildfire risks resulted in insurance companies pulling out of Los Angeles before the major fire earlier this year, insurance companies are sure to take notice of this development. Those who live in states which will be pushing back on this, will probably see an increase in insurance rates.

Training cycles for rescue teams is also very likely to be impacted as teams and departments, if forced to by the actions of their state, will be operating on a shoestring budget. Police departments may or may not be affected, it's too soon to tell. This directive comes from the Department of Homeland Security, and specifically applies to grants that are mostly used by local fire departments to purchase life-saving rescue equipment.

All in all, this is the indication and warning for Americans to prepare for being their own responder to a crisis. The citizen-based response to Hurricane Helene most clearly illustrated the need for localized non-government-affiliated disaster recovery efforts...all while the federal government was trying their utmost to slow-roll their response. Now, the challenges have grown substantially and the need for a prepared citizenry which will not discriminate or withhold disaster relief due to political reasons, has become an even more desperate need. Thankfully, the success of the efforts during the Hurricane Helene response served as a proof-of-concept for many ideas, not just disaster recovery. More pressingly, Hurricane Season officially ends on November 30th, so this will be something to consider as the need for community disaster preparedness remains paramount.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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