S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday July 30, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Join to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxlaGAKm2ApEs13O1gWDltg/join

Market Summary for Tuesday, July 29, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, July 30, 2025:
Tuesday Recap:
Market Performance: The S&P 500 experienced a down day, opening higher but setting an intraday high before declining, closing down 0.3%. This follows a pattern of recent sessions, signaling potential market exhaustion.
Key Levels: The S&P reached above R1 at 6,402 but fell below S1 at 6,377 and S2 at 6,342, finding support at S2. Volume was above average, reflecting increased activity amid upcoming economic reports.
Economic Context: Major reports included consumer confidence (97.2, above expectations), JOLTS job openings (7.437M, weaker than expected), FHFA housing price index (up 0.2%), and Case-Shiller home price index (up 2.8%, below expectations). The advanced goods trade deficit improved to 85.9%.
Technical Indicators: The S&P 500 remains above the 20-period moving average, maintaining a positive stance. However, momentum oscillators including RSI, CCI, and Stochastics show overbought conditions, with some turning negative. The bullish percent index for the S&P is no longer extreme and negative, but the NASDAQ 100’s is rising.
Sector Performance: Growth stocks underperformed, while value stocks showed resilience, indicating a defensive shift. Tech was unchanged, discretionary and communication lagged, and defensive sectors including real estate and staples held steady.
Other Assets: Oil rose due to geopolitical tensions, the dollar stayed above its 50-day moving average, and the 10-year yield dropped to 4.33%. The yield curve (10-year to 3-month) gas gone inverted again, raising potential recession concerns.
Geopolitical and Policy: Comments from President Trump on secondary sanctions against Russia by August 8, 2025, and ongoing trade deal deadlines (August 1) add uncertainty. The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday is not expected to result in rate cuts, but its statement and press conference will be closely watched.
Wednesday Outlook:
Key Events: The Fed’s decision at 2 p.m., GDP (first look for Q2), ADP employment data, MBA Mortgage Applications, and pending home sales will drive market reactions. Earnings from 38% of S&P 500 companies continue.
Seasonality: Historical data suggests a neutral-to-negative outlook for the Dow but positive for the S&P and NASDAQ on July 30. August in post-election years has historically been negative (average -3.4% for the S&P).
Market Stance: The S&P 500 remains positive as long as it stays above the 20-period moving average, but signs of weakness are emerging. A break below this level could signal a shift to a more negative stance. The current pullback is being monitored, with potential for further declines if negative momentum grows.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is at a critical juncture with overbought conditions, upcoming economic data, and Fed announcements. While still trending positively, caution is warranted due to potential pullbacks and seasonal weaknesses in August.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GMedTBSFC9UIrDZju3pBYSG3Od-H6svY/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!