Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-NY): "I Need More Migrants In My District, For Redistricting Purposes"

Posted • July 28, 2025: If history is any guide, Democrats should enter next fall's midterm election cycle with a distinct advantage. Generally, the opposition party fares well in these contests -- sometimes very well. Looking back over the past two decades, for instance, four of the last five midterm cycles have resulted in waves (blue in 2006, 2018; red in 2010 and 2014). But in 2022, Democrats over-performed expectations and held the GOP to a 'red trickle,' which was still sufficient for Republicans to take back the House, but just barely. Given the tiny margins in both Congressional chambers right now, even a similar trickle next year would probably be enough to hand Democrats the gavel in at least the House of Representatives. This is especially true, in light of Democrats' recently-established and -demonstrated structural advantage in lower-turnout elections. Their base shows up, faithfully. Republicans have started to rely more heavily on lower-propensity voters to win, which presents a challenging proposition in non-'Super Bowl' presidential years.

That said, there are some extremely early indications that 2026 isn't shaping up like either 2006 or 2018. We've written about a few of them recently, https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2025/07/16/watch-gop-going-on-offense-over-big-beautiful-new-law-n2660401 —— Including some heartening numbers in the chase for dollars: Another good indicator that this is not 2017/2018. Republicans are out-raising Democrats and Democrats’ party approval and enthusiasm is still abysmal. https://x.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1944716128644719081 —— There's also this way-too-early (but perhaps still somewhat useful on trend-spotting) polling analysis that made the rounds a few weeks ago: Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this point.

NBC's data guru also sees some major distinctions between terrible bloodbath years for Republicans and what appears to be brewing in 2026: NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press NOW to explain how Republicans could hold on to control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections compared to their sweeping losses in 2018. "The makeup of that Republican majority that got decimated in 2018 [net 40 seats lost] is very different than the makeup of the Republican majority right now," Kornacki told viewers, explaining that many more House Republicans in that previous cycle represented districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 (25 seats in 2018), compared to those who hold seats in Harris-won seats today (just three seats). "Republicans have fewer overall seats now, but there are more Republicans in truly safe 'Trump landslide' districts," he said of the 2026 map.

He also noted that if the red states of Texas and Ohio go through a redistricting process to draw Democrats out of seats, that could blunt some of the built-in Democrat advantages in the upcoming midterms, potentially keeping them "in the game to hold onto their majority." Democrats are screaming about the unfairness of gerrymandering, but they are ruthless gerrymanderers themselves. Part of the reason the New York Times writes that Democrats have few options on the table to counter potential GOP redistricting plans is that they've already squeezed every ounce of their advantage in some of the bluest states they control: “But the toolbox for Democrats is relatively sparse, aside from litigation or legislative protests.

“Though Democrat leaders have indicated a willingness to go tit for tat with Republicans, most of the largest blue states do not have a partisan redistricting process akin to the one in Texas…States where Democrats would have complete control over any redistricting, such as Illinois and Maryland, are already gerrymandered heavily in their favor. Squeezing more Democrat seats out of those states would be a challenge…While Democrats have their share of aggressive gerrymanders, blue states have led in embracing reforms to insulate redistricting from politics, such as creating an independent or bipartisan commission to agree on new maps. Such actions — done in the name of good governance and often with significant support from voters — are now leaving Democrats in a bind.” —— Democrats have tied their own hands for their own political reasons in some places, while aggressively gerrymandering elsewhere.

They like to pretend that Republicans are the scheming, power-hungry party, and just whistle past glaring examples like these: Who exactly does this guy think he’s fooling here??? You’re not afraid the game is being rigged. You’re afraid it’s finally being rigged against your side. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwzKlH6XQAAepKr?format=jpg&name=medium —— Republicans win 40% of the votes for US House in CA, yet hold only 17% of House seats in the state. Newsom wants an unconstitutional ultra gerrymander because Democrats’ massive overrepresentation in our House delegation is not enough for him, Mr. Democracy. His scheme involves tricking Californians to abolish the nonpartisan line-drawing commission. “America’s Most Corrupt Governor” is an understatement.

As usual, Democrats love gerrymandering and unfair maps as long as those schemes benefit their party. When the tables are turned, it's "anti-democracy" and "authoritarianism." Funny how that works. If President Trump can help the party navigate primary season ahead of the 2026 general, thus avoiding bloody and ugly internecine nominating fights, that could also be rather helpful and a refreshing course correction. Politico reports that's exactly the plan. Of course, a massive factor in 2026 will be how the national mood looks around this time next year. That's unknowable. As of this moment, though, some of Trump's approval numbers, and overall economic sentiment is heading in the right direction for Republicans: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1948073171980022135 —— https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1948594391108497426 —— But there will be many highly-anticipated reports and metrics like these over the next 15 months or so that will be a huge part of the electoral story:

This week: GDP, jobs, & inflation reports (which could influence Fed decision on rate cuts) -- deadlines for trade deals with Europe, Canada, & Mexico -- court hearing on Trump's tariff policy -- and US/China trade talks in Stockholm. 🫨 One reality that has to be of concern for Democrats is the part's deep, historic unpopularity. Elections are a choice, and this is how voters currently feel about one of those choices: BRUTAL WSJ poll: “The Democrat Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in more than three decades.” 33-63 Favorable/Unfavorable. GOP trust advantages: Inflation: GOP +10. Tariffs: GOP +7. Illegal Immigration: GOP +24. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/democratic-party-poll-voter-confidence-july-2025-9db38021?st=YbBBWg […] I'm not sure whether this (or glitchy pre-taped virtual "speeches" from Kamala Harris, for that matter) will help fix matters among the young: Flop sweat + actual sweat in a panda costume during the DC summer.

The left held a sparsely attended youth voters event in DC with an incredibly desperate panda emcee. "Come on people. Look alive!" Have Democrats hit rock bottom yet? https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1949146625646940160/vid/avc1/1280x720/vpKS1o-50kmn-MwL.mp4 —— And it doesn't seem as though they're terribly serious about accurately diagnosing what's gone wrong for their party: The Democrats’ 2024 election autopsy will reportedly not examine the Biden fiasco or Harris’ quality as a candidate. Odd choice! https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1948796135671201792/vid/avc1/1280x720/V5yBo3Y7xBjbWLZa.mp4 —— I'll leave you with this: That’s quite the thing to admit: Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-NY): "I need more migrants in my district, for redistricting purposes." This is how you hijack democracy (…)

• More at: Townhall - Early Analysis: Do Republicans Have a Decent Shot at Defying History in the Midterms?
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2025/07/28/early-analysis-do-republicans-have-a-decent-shot-at-defying-history-in-the-midterms-n2661004
NBC News: Kornacki: More Republicans are in ‘truly safe’ districts heading into 2026 midterms compared to 2018
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/kornacki-more-republicans-are-in-truly-safe-districts-heading-into-2026-midterms-compared-to-2018-243650117857
Rumble: Early Analysis: Do Republicans Have A Decent Shot At Defying History In The Midterms? Part 1
https://rumble.com/v6wsx08-early-analysis-do-republicans-have-a-decent-shot-at-defying-history-in-the-.html
Rumble: Early Analysis: Do Republicans Have A Decent Shot At Defying History In The Midterms? Part 2
https://rumble.com/v6wsx9e-early-analysis-do-republicans-have-a-decent-shot-at-defying-history-in-the-.html