S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday July 24, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Join to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxlaGAKm2ApEs13O1gWDltg/join

Market Summary for July 23, 2025:
Outlook for July 24, 2025
Market Performance on July 23:
The NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit all-time highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.78% on above-average volume. However, the NASDAQ 100 did not reach a new high, showing some overhead resistance.
Broad market participation increased, with small and mid-caps performing well, though not yet in a confirmed uptrend. Growth stocks outperformed slightly, but value stocks showed improvement, indicating a potential shift.
Trade deal announcements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines boosted Asian and European markets, contributing to a higher U.S. market open. The S&P 500 held gains, closing at the intraday high above 6350.
Optimism was driven by earnings reports and trade deals, particularly with Japan (15% tariff and $550 billion U.S. investment) and a near-finalized EU deal. However, semiconductors underperformed, tempering tech sector strength.
Market Indicators and Sentiment:
Sentiment is extremely positive at 76, raising caution as it exceeds the 75 threshold. Momentum oscillators are mixed, with some (e.g., StochRSI, Williams %R) showing short-term strength, while others (e.g., MACD, slope oscillator) are drifting lower, indicating potential exhaustion.
Interest rates rose slightly to 4.39% but remain below the critical 4.5% level. The dollar weakened, supporting stocks. Smart money indicators (e.g., accumulation distribution, Chaikin money flow & oscillator) turned positive, and advance-decline lines confirmed broad participation.
The growth-to-value ratio remained positive but showed signs of leveling off, with discretionary stocks outperforming staples. The VIX remains below 20, reflecting reduced market fear.
Economic Data and Sector Performance:
Existing home sales fell 2.7% month-over-month to a 3.93 million seasonal rate, below expectations. MBA Mortgage Applications rose 0.8%, with the Purchase Index up 3.5%.
Healthcare led sectors, while utilities were the only sector down. Financials and industrials showed some weakness, with BPI crosses below key levels (e.g., financials below 70).
Individual stocks including Nvidia (up 2.25%) performed well, while Tesla and Google saw mixed after-hours moves post-earnings.
Outlook for July 24:
Key reports to watch include initial & continuing jobless claims, new home sales, and global PMIs. Seasonality data suggests a mixed outlook: neutral to positive for the S&P, neutral to negative for the NASDAQ, and negative for the Dow.
Potential warning signs include weakening momentum oscillators, a negative long-term Zahorchak sell signal, and the NASDAQ 100’s underperformance. However, positive indicators including smart money indicators and broad market participation suggest continued strength.
Trade deal developments and geopolitical events could influence market direction. The market remains positive across all time frames, but caution is warranted due to high sentiment and mixed momentum.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs with positive trends, but signs of exhaustion and mixed momentum suggest caution. Broad participation and trade deal optimism are supportive, but investors should monitor earnings, interest rates, and upcoming economic data closely.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kAsf0rS1_w42uODVF7ypTd2ya75xA4NW/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!