S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday July 23, 2025

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Market Summary for Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Outlook for Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Tuesday Recap:
Market Performance: The broader market ended slightly positive, setting a new all-time high for the S&P 500, despite underperformance in growth, tech, and semiconductors. Small and mid-cap stocks, along with value stocks, had a strong day, supporting the market's positive tone.
Trading Activity: The S&P 500 opened flat, dipped below 6,300 (below S1 at 6,294), found support at S2 (6,283), and later broke back above 6,300, hitting resistance at the daily pivot (6,315). Volume was slightly above average.
Economic and Policy Context: No major economic reports were released. Jerome Powell’s speech went largely unnoticed. Trade deals with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia were announced, boosting Asian markets overnight.
Technical Indicators: The market remains above the 20-period moving average, signaling resilience. The S&P closed up 0.06%, with mixed signals from momentum oscillators (e.g., Stochastics and RSI remain extreme positive, but momentum is weakening). The SKU index suggests high call buying, indicating expectations of an upside move.
Sector and Stock Highlights: Value outperformed growth, with small and mid-caps gaining. Discretionary stocks rose over 1%, while tech and semis lagged. Notable stock movements included NVIDIA and Microsoft (down), Tesla and Google (up), and Netflix (down 3.5%, below its 50-day moving average).
Other Factors: Interest rates dropped to 4.34% (10-year yield), and the dollar weakened, supporting stocks. The overbought/oversold composite is nearing 90, signaling a potential top, though historical data suggests continued strength when above the 20-period moving average.
Wednesday Outlook:
Key Events: Earnings reports from Google and Tesla before the open are highly anticipated. Economic data includes MBA Mortgage Applications Index and existing home sales, with more significant reports (e.g., jobless claims, durable goods) expected later in the week.
Seasonality: Neutral to positive for the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P on July 23, though the week after options expiration tends to be weaker. The second half of July historically underperforms but shows no strong negative seasonality during post-election years.
Market Sentiment: Remains positive across all time frames, with a strengthening trend (ADX above 20). However, mixed signals persist from smart money indicators (e.g., positive accumulation distribution but a flat boom indicator and negative NYSE McClellan Oscillator). Momentum is drifting slightly lower, particularly for the NASDAQ 100.
Technical Levels: Watch pivot points for Wednesday (updated on the YouTube Community tab). The 6,371 level may act as overhead resistance, especially for the NASDAQ 100, which is testing longer-term pivot points.
Potential Catalysts: Further trade deal announcements or White House policy changes could impact the markets. Earnings reports are expected to provide support, preventing significant declines unless unexpected geopolitical or policy shocks occur.
Conclusion:
The market remains cautiously optimistic, supported by value and small/mid-cap strength, declining interest rates, and positive trade developments. Wednesday’s earnings and economic data could drive volatility, but the overall trend remains positive for now.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!