S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday July 22, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, July 21, 2025
Outlook for Tuesday July 22, 2025
Market Performance: The S&P 500 closed slightly positive (+0.14%) but gave up significant gains in the late afternoon, showing signs of fatigue. It set a new intraday all-time high, with futures starting strong and prices rising above resistance levels (R1 at 6313, R2 at 6330) early on. Late-day selling pushed prices below R2 and R1, with below-average volume indicating lower participation.
Economic Context: Declining interest rates (10-year yield dropped from 4.43% to 4.37%) and a weaker dollar supported stocks, particularly early in the session. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3%, raising recession concerns, though the Coincident Economic Index remains positive, showing a divergence. Employment data and retail sales remain strong, but the LEI's decline below the recession warning line is notable.
Earnings and Sentiment: Earnings season is progressing well, providing market support, with most S&P 500 companies reporting this week and next. Sentiment remains exuberant but stable, with the Fear and Greed Index at 74 and weekly sentiment at 76.4. Momentum indicators are mixed: short-term indicators including the Williams %R and CCI charts are showing positive but weakening momentum, while some oscillators (e.g., MACD, TRIX) indicate a loss of positive thrust.
Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 remains positive across all timeframes, with growth outperforming value. The S&P 500 hit overhead resistance (Daily Pivot Point), and internal cracks (e.g., declining new highs, mixed smart money indicators) suggest potential weakness. The bullish percent index is declining, and the VIX remains low but with a rising skew index, indicating expectations of a potential big move.
Key Sectors and Stocks: Communication (Google, Meta) and tech (Amazon, Apple) led gains, while defensive sectors including healthcare and energy lagged. The FANG index hit an all-time high, supporting the market late in the day. Semiconductors also reached a new high.
Tuesday Outlook (July 22, 2025): No major economic reports are due, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the market open could influence sentiment. Geopolitical events and trade/tariff developments remain risks. Earnings from Google and Tesla (reporting Wednesday) may affect trading. Seasonality suggests a slightly positive bias for Tuesday, though the second half of July typically underperforms. The market is expected to remain quiet unless significant news emerges, with a neutral to positive bias for major indices.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is trending positively but showing signs of exhaustion with late-day selling and mixed momentum signals. Investors should watch Powell’s speech and monitor earnings and geopolitical developments for potential market movers.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!