S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday July 21, 2025

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Market Summary for Friday, July 18, 2025:
Outlook for Monday, July 21, 2025:
Friday Market Recap:
Market Performance: The S&P 500 hit an intraday all-time high shortly after the open but lacked conviction, closing slightly negative (-0.01%) with average volume, surprising for an options expiration day.
Key Levels: Opened above 6,300, reached R1 at 6,314, but fell below 6,300, finding support at the daily pivot of 6,288 before drifting sideways.
Economic Data: Housing starts rose 4.6% month-over-month (1.321M vs. 1.3M expected), but single-unit starts and permits declined (-4.6% and -3.7%, respectively), signaling underlying housing market weakness. Consumer sentiment slightly beat expectations at 61.8 (vs. 61.5 expected).
Sentiment and Indicators: Sentiment remains extremely positive (75) raising concerns about exuberance. Technical indicators including the Williams %R and RSI show short-term overbought conditions, while some momentum oscillators are turning negative, indicating potential weakness. The trend remains positive across all time frames.
Sector Performance: Growth outperformed value, with tech and discretionary sectors showing strength (e.g., Tesla +3%, Amazon +1%). Small caps and energy lagged, with Netflix dropping post-earnings.
Other Factors: Interest rates (10-year yield at 4.43%) and inflation (Truflation at 2.06%, CPI at 2.7%) remain manageable. Concerns linger about potential tariff impacts and "buy the rumor, sell the news" reactions during earnings season.
Outlook for Monday, July 21, 2025:
Economic Calendar: Leading Economic Index is the only report, not considered major. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at market open on Tuesday may influence sentiment, though his recent tone has been “wait and see.”
Seasonality: Historical data since 2002 shows July 21 tends to be negative, with the second half of July typically underperforming the first half. Post-election years show resilience, but a pullback is possible.
Market Dynamics: The S&P 500 remains positive but shows internal weaknesses. Watch for support at the 20-period moving average if pullbacks occur. Geopolitical developments (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) or tariff news could impact sentiment.
Technical Levels: The S&P 500 is near overhead resistance, with potential for continued sideways movement or a pullback.
Conclusion: The S&P 500 remains bullish across all time frames, but caution is warranted due to building weaknesses, high sentiment, and seasonal trends. Monday’s session may see choppy trading absent major catalysts.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!