Ground Game in UKRAINE: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ⚡Deep Dive

Lt Col Daniel Davis / Deep Dive | Ground Game in UKRAINE: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE History Legends Alex & Col Daniel Davis
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The discussion revolves around the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war, especially focusing on Ukraine’s defensive posture in the Donbas region and the significance of strategic cities like Donetsk, Luhansk, Pokrovsk (Pakrosk), and Kostiantynivka.
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Key Points:
Ukrainian Strategy & Morale:
Many trenches being attacked are reportedly empty, suggesting possible Ukrainian withdrawal or redeployment. The analyst believes Ukraine may have already internally accepted the loss of Donbas and is continuing the fight to exhaust Russian forces—similar to Germany's late WWII Eastern Front strategy. Some Ukrainians seem to be holding out hope for a Russian collapse or internal revolution, akin to 1917.
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Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
There is declining interest among the general Ukrainian population, especially outside the eastern regions. A second wave of mass mobilization might only happen if Russian forces threaten Kyiv again.
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Russian Advances:
Russia has captured nearly all of Luhansk and is heavily focused on Donetsk oblast, particularly targeting Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. These cities are seen as vital logistical and strategic hubs, not just political trophies.
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Tactics and Terrain:
Russians are bypassing entrenched urban defenses to avoid heavy street battles, preferring encirclement tactics, as seen in Avdiivka. Urban centers are prioritized over rural advances due to their strategic importance.
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Operational Concerns:
Though Russia has operational reserves and momentum, advances could stall due to industrial bottlenecks, minefields, and increased Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian attempts at rapid breakthroughs could be costly, and large-scale Desert Storm-type offensives are unlikely.
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Pokrovsk’s Importance:
Considered a potential tipping point: if it falls, it could open a broader area to Russian forces. However, whether that leads to full front collapse is debatable.
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Drone Warfare and Manpower:
Drones are at parity between both sides, but thinning Ukrainian lines and reduced availability of skilled operators could eventually create weak spots exploitable by Russia.
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Outlook:
Russia is making consistent gains and appears focused on city-by-city domination. However, large-scale, rapid collapses of Ukrainian defense lines remain uncertain due to terrain, defensive tactics, and logistical challenges. Urban centers like Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka remain the key to the next phase.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjjL5fPLfyQ