Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday July 15, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, July 14, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, July 15, 2025:
Monday Market Recap:

Market Performance: The S&P 500 showed resilience with a slightly positive close, up 0.14%, despite a lower open and choppy trading. The S&P 500 oscillated between the daily pivot (6256) and S1 (6242), climbing to 6270 but closing just below. Volume remained below average.

Sentiment: Extremely positive at 76 (up from 75), indicating exuberance. However, momentum is slowing, with some indicators including the StochRSI and CCI showing short-term weakness.

Key Events: No major economic reports were released. The market was largely desensitized to trade and tariff news, including proposed 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico (potentially starting August 1) and Trump’s announcement of up to 100% tariffs on Russia by September 1 if no ceasefire is reached in Ukraine.

Sector Highlights: NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hit new all-time highs, driven by growth stocks. Financials and discretionary sectors performed well, while energy weakened. Mega-cap stocks held steady but didn’t lead.

Indicators: Most remain positive across short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes, though some intermediate-term indicators (e.g., balance of power, TTM squeeze) suggest overbought conditions. The bullish percent indexes are declining but still positive.

Other Factors: Interest rates ticked up slightly to 4.43%, and the dollar is in a short-term uptrend per some measures. Hard economic data has weakened since May, creating a divergence with rising economic surprise indices.

Tuesday Outlook:

Key Events: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the second most significant economic report of the month, is due, potentially impacting market sentiment and interest rate expectations. Major banks (Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase) will report earnings before the market opens, influencing financials.

Other Data: Empire State Manufacturing data will also be released.

Market Expectations: Futures are slightly up, but the market may remain cautious ahead of CPI and earnings. Geopolitical factors (e.g., tariffs, Russia-Ukraine) are not currently driving significant moves but remain in focus.

Seasonality: The first half of July has been positive, but the second half typically sees slower gains. Options expiration on Friday could add volatility (historically up 57% of the time since 1980).

Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 is trending positively but showing signs of fatigue. Resistance at R1 and potential new all-time highs are in play if momentum holds. Support levels will be critical if CPI or earnings disappoint.

Conclusion:

The S&P 500 remains positive across all timeframes but lacks strong conviction, with sentiment at extreme levels and momentum slowing. Tuesday’s CPI and bank earnings could be catalysts for directional moves.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!