3 months ago

Jul 13, 2025 #Ukraine, #Russia, #Ukraine Russia Conflict,

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
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The discussion centers on escalating geopolitical instability in the Caucasus region and its broader implications for Russia, Iran, and the Ukraine war. The key points are:

Russian Oversight in the Caucasus: Russia, focused heavily on Ukraine, overlooked growing instability in the Caucasus, particularly the actions of Azerbaijan under President Aliyev. Russia had previously seen Azerbaijan as a stable ally due to historic loyalty, but this turned out to be a miscalculation.

Azerbaijan-Israel-Turkey-US Axis: Azerbaijan has developed close ties with Israel and Turkey and is cooperating with Western intelligence (Mossad, MI6, CIA). This axis appears to be aiming at destabilizing Iran.

Threat to Iran: A possible Azerbaijani invasion of northwestern Iran, home to a large Azeri population, could trigger internal rebellion. Iran is reportedly preparing for renewed war with Israel around September, potentially coinciding with this invasion.

Strategic Shift by Russia: Facing threats on multiple fronts, especially from what it sees as a Western-Israeli-Turkish alliance, Russia may accelerate its military campaign in Ukraine to free up resources for the Caucasus.

Military and Security Calculus: Russia still considers Iran essential to its southern security buffer. Moscow cannot allow a Western-aligned Azerbaijan to destabilize Iran, which would jeopardize Russian strategic depth.

Russian Military Posture: Putin is signaling both internally and to the West that Russia is mobilizing for a broader, long-term confrontation, framing the conflict as existential. He emphasizes national unity and readiness to act decisively.

Western Strategy and BRICS: Putin believes the West (especially the U.S.) is trying to dismantle the Eurasian integration efforts like China's Belt and Road Initiative and the BRICS economic alliance. Trump’s comment threatening tariffs on BRICS countries reinforces this perception.

Conclusion: Russia interprets Western actions as attempts to isolate and weaken it. Moscow is preparing for prolonged conflict and broader regional engagement. The Ukraine war may intensify quickly as Russia seeks to resolve it before shifting full attention to threats in the Caucasus and beyond.

In short, the war in Ukraine is no longer just about Ukraine—it's part of a much larger, interconnected struggle for geopolitical control across the region.

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