Weekly Update for July 14-18, 2025

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Market Update Summary (July 7-11, 2025:
Outlook for July 14-18):
Market Performance (July 7-11):
The S&P 500 experienced a slight decline of 0.31%, indicating some exhaustion but remaining resilient.
Major indexes including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and NYSE hit all-time highs during the week, while mid and small caps improved but gave back gains on Friday.
Trading volume was below average, reflecting the slower "dog days of summer."
Seasonal Trends:
The first half of July is historically the most positive period of the year, but the second half (although positive), along with August and September, tends to be less favorable.
Key Factors:
Interest Rates: The 10-year yield rose to 4.41% from 4.35%, nearing the critical 4.5% level, which could trigger selling if breached.
Inflation: Not a major concern currently, though the CRB index is trending upward, signaling potential inflationary pressures.
Tariffs: New tariff announcements (e.g., 25% on Japan/South Korea, 50% on Brazil, 15-20% on most partners, 50% on copper, 200% on pharmaceuticals) contributed to Friday’s decline. The market views these as negotiation tactics, maintaining relative stability.
Earnings Season: Already began but seen as starting with big banks reporting in the coming week. Early reports show 71% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates by 4.6%, though earnings forecasts have been revised downward.
Geopolitical Issues: Events including Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine had minimal market impact.
Market Indicators:
Momentum and Trends: Overall positive, with growth sectors (tech, communication) outperforming value. The NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 are leading, while small/mid-caps and financials underperforming.
Sentiment: Bullish and extreme, though some daily charts indicate overbought conditions, suggesting caution for profit-taking.
VIX: Below 20, supporting stock stability. Breadth indicators (e.g., new highs/lows, advance-decline ratio) remain positive.
Economy: GDP growth projected at 2.5%, with no immediate recession signals. Inflation reports (CPI, PPI) are due next week.
Fed Policy: A 94.8% chance of no rate change at the July 30 meeting, with two 0.25% rate cuts expected by year-end, possibly starting in September.
Sectors and Assets:
Strong Performers: Energy (oil rising), industrials, tech, and communication services. NVIDIA went over a $4 trillion market cap.
Weak Performers: Healthcare and financials struggled; small/mid-caps underperformed despite earlier gains.
Commodities: Oil and copper in uptrends, gold steady, silver breaking out. The dollar is in a downtrend but bouncing.
Bonds: Negative performance, with rates rising slightly.
Outlook (July 14-18):
Watch earnings, especially from banks, for market direction.
Monitor interest rates (4.5% threshold) and tariff developments for potential volatility.
The second half of July historically underperforms, so caution is warranted despite positive trends.
Growth sectors are likely to continue leading, but financials and small caps need monitoring.
The market remains constructive but faces risks from rising rates, tariffs, and potential profit-taking due to high sentiment.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!