Why Netanyahu's Iran Obsession Is About To Backfire Spectacularly

Right, so there’s a difference between boldness and blundering, but Benjamin Netanyahu seems determined to blur the line. Still fresh from a bruising 12-day war that left Israel’s defences threadbare, its economy reeling, and its deterrence in tatters, Netanyahu now appears ready to reload—and relight—the fuse as he trundles off, no doubt with his dirty washing in tow as usual, to Washington and yet another meeting with the bloviating orange oaf that passes for US President Donald Trump. The target, as if you needed to ask, is Iran again. The rationale for it? Rather thin, given Iran’s nuclear research program remains offline. And the timing? Strategically it seems rather suicidal. As Israel faces the most precarious military and fiscal moment in a generation, its prime minister isn’t leading from strength—he’s sprinting from weakness, hoping that yet another war will do what diplomacy, deterrence, and domestic credibility no longer can – keep his backside in power. But is Israel really in any shape militarily and financially to keep him where he wants to be?
Right, so as Israel still reels from the aftershocks of its first direct military confrontation with Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu is already back to rattling the sabres. Reports amid his latest trip to the US appear to confirm that he is actively seeking support from Donald Trump for a renewed strike on Iranian targets, even as Israel's air defence systems teeter on the brink of exhaustion and the economy struggles under the weight of prolonged warfare. With no immediate Iranian threat and the Islamic Republic's nuclear program temporarily disabled, the case for another Israeli assault is as flimsy as it is dangerous. So all this talk of more war with Iran, what we are witnessing is not strategy but desperation—a toxic cocktail of Netanyahu’s political self-preservation, ideological rigidity, and a level of recklessness that could be catastrophically self-defeating.
The 12-day missile war with Iran last month left Israel's defences, economy, and global standing battered. According to The Wall Street Journal, the nightly cost of missile defence operations reached $285 million, with a total war bill already exceeding $6 billion. Iran's barrage of ballistic missiles, including advanced Sejjil and Fattah-class projectiles, overwhelmed Israel's Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow 3 systems, inflicting direct hits on five military bases and other critical targets including the Headquarters of the IDF intelligence, Unit 8200 and the Bezan oil refinery in Haifa. Runways at Tel Nof and Nevatim were temporarily put out of commission, severely impairing the Air Force's response capacity.
Iran's strikes exposed what had long been obscured by Israeli military bravado: that their famed air defence architecture has its limits. The Cradle has recently reported that the Arrow 3 system is running dangerously low on interceptors, as is the US provided THAAD system. Internal documents suggest stocks may last for only 12 more days if renewed hostilities break out. Meanwhile, Israeli defence and finance ministries are in open conflict over how to fund urgently needed resupply, with Israel’s Defence ministry requesting a $17 billion emergency package and Finance – bearing in mind the Finance Minister is Bezalel Smotrich - is balking at its long-term implications.
This situation has had serious consequences not just for Israel's battlefield resilience, but for its deterrence image. For decades, Israel has cultivated a reputation of invincibility because of its air defences. But in this latest conflict, Iran not only penetrated Israeli airspace, it demonstrated that it can inflict sustained, significant damage. This shift in perception may embolden regional adversaries and diminish the psychological barrier Israel once enjoyed over its foes.
So when it comes to the question of whether or not Israel can afford to go to war with Iran again, the answer is basically no—not without incurring generational economic harm. As Credit Ratings Agency Moody’s have recently warned, Israel’s fiscal deficit is projected to balloon past 6% of GDP, well above its legally mandated 4.9% cap. The economic strain is compounded by the war’s broader ripple effects: capital flight, declining consumer confidence, and a slowdown in high-tech exports. According to Reuters, domestic economic growth forecasts have been slashed from 3.2% to barely 2%.
The costs of interceptor missiles alone are staggering. Each Arrow 3 missile can cost between $3-4 million, while David’s Sling interceptors come in at around $700,000 each. With hundreds of intercepts required during the exchanges with Iran, if you take Israel at their word – and they usually only big themselves up bear in mind - the economic impact of defensive operations alone is unprecedented.
Wartime expenditures have already forced the government to issue US dollar-denominated bonds and draw heavily on US military aid. But even Washington has limits. Israel’s dependency on the US for missile resupply and financial guarantees is reaching unsustainable levels, especially as US policymakers grow wary of being drawn into yet another regional conflagration with unclear exit strategies – there never are any it seems, just more war fronts being opened.
But while Israel and the US seemingly did inflict serious damage on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure in June, Tehran has not been knocked out—only bloodied. Iran is actively rebuilding air defences and dispersing command structures to limit vulnerability. They’ve apparently been moving their missiles around. More importantly, its missile production capacity remains intact as well.
In one astonishing claim, IRGC adviser Maj. Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari told Anadolu Agency that Iran retains the capability to strike Israel with ballistic missiles daily for up to two years. Though this might be exaggeration, you just wouldn’t want to bet on that would you?
It is also worth noting that Iranian retaliation during the last exchange was highly calibrated. Tehran demonstrated both restraint and capability, opting for precision over devastation, why the Israeli death toll was significantly lower than the Iranian one, under assault by indiscriminate Israeli fire. But a second, unprovoked Israeli strike may erase that restraint, pushing Iran into broader escalation, they’ve actually said if it happens again, there will be no red lines. In that context, Netanyahu's gamble looks less like deterrence and more like provocation that could spiral rapidly out of control and with Israel less capable of defending itself.
Critically, there is no imminent Iranian threat to justify renewed Israeli aggression. Iran's nuclear facilities have been severely damaged. By Iran’s own admission, they will be offline for months; by Israeli and US estimates, for at least one to two years. Enrichment activities have stalled, and although that arguably can’t be confirmed with Iran having thrown the IAEA out of the country now, Iran remains committed to the Nuclear non-Proliferation treaty, not that that bothered Israel or the US last time.
To strike Iran now is to strike because of what it might do someday – unjustified even as that is - rather than any present danger. As Axios and the Financial Times have noted, even Donald Trump—who greenlit previous Israeli strikes—has not formally endorsed renewed conflict. A new war would thus lack not only international legal justification but also unified political support from Israel’s most vital patron, though of course Netanyahu is reportedly there working on that.
It also violates basic principles of international law. Anticipatory self-defence requires credible, imminent threats—not hypothetical worst-case scenarios. And even if such a justification could be conjured, it would not survive scrutiny under the UN Charter or the court of global public opinion, who in larger numbers are no longer being sucked in by Israeli propaganda. Israel risks not only strategic failure but diplomatic isolation.
So why is Netanyahu pushing for it? The answer of course has nothing to do with national security and everything to do with his political survival. Besieged by a corruption trial he’s been fleeing for years, eroding coalition unity, and widespread public fatigue, Netanyahu sees war as a way to silence dissent, delay accountability, and posture as Israel’s indispensable protector, rather than the craven self serving instigator that he actually is.
Netanyahu is, it is claimed, actively lobbying Trump to provide diplomatic and possibly military backing for yet another strike. The calculation is simple and it is deeply cynical: provoke Iran, trigger retaliation, and then force US entanglement on the assumption that Trump will protect Israel and possibly benefit electorally from the ensuing chaos. Well even Trump chose a different path last time and it certainly isn’t making him more electorally popular.
The cost of Netanyahu’s political survival is the strategic stability of the entire region. No democracy should ever allow one man's legal or electoral jeopardy to dictate foreign policy, much less decisions of war and peace that affect the entire Middle East.
And unlike the last round, Iran may not hold back, as I said a moment ago, they’ve claimed there will be no red lines if Israel attack them again. The Atlantic Council warns that further escalation could push Tehran to abandon nuclear restraint entirely, especially if it perceives coordinated Israeli-American efforts as existential. Thus, the very war Israel claims would enhance security could instead result in and accelerate the damage already done to them.
Israeli society is not monolithic. Public sentiment following the first war showed deepening divisions. Reservists complained of inadequate preparation; civilians protested being kept in, trapped essentially in the line of fire as others fled in boats to Cyprus. Calls for Netanyahu’s resignation have intensified. So to plunge the country into another conflict under these conditions is to ignore not only military logic but the popular will.
There is also the chilling democratic toll. Wartime emergency measures have been used to silence dissent, restrict press freedom, and postpone parliamentary oversight. If Israel moves toward perpetual preemptive warfare, it risks becoming a militarised democracy in name only—governed not by law, but by the logic of fear, as if Netanyahu wasn’t despotic enough already.
Netanyahu is steering Israel toward a cliff and I imagine few people right now shed a tear over that. The first war with Iran revealed serious cracks in Israel's military, fiscal, and strategic architecture – they were nowhere near as prepared as they thought they were. Another war—especially unprovoked again—would not patch them up but erode them further. It would shatter what remains of Israel's deterrence, economy, and international legitimacy and the country may simply not survive that.
The argument for war now is built not on necessity, but on fantasy: that Israel can afford what it cannot; that Iran is defenceless when it isn’t; that deterrence is restored through recklessness rather than restraint. Netanyahu is not safeguarding Israel's future. He is mortgaging it.
In a region Israel has already set ablaze, from Gaza, to the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen the last thing the world needs is another spark—especially one lit by a man holding a lighter in one hand and a petrol can in the other ready to dose as many other countries as he needs to to save his own political career.
Making the whole situation that bit more volatile is news of a Congressional Bill progressing to give Israel the means to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites with B-2 bombers and the bunker busters that did such damage to the sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – last time done for Israel by the US, but if this passes Israel could strike itself in the same way whenever it wished. Far from wondering if Israel can replenish what it has lost, all new weaponry could be about to be provided to them, provided to Netanyahu with all the threat that presents. Get all the details of that story in this video recommendation here as your suggested next watch.
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