S&P 500 Weekly Update for July 7-11, 2025

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Weekly Update for June 30-July 3, 2025
Outlook for July 7-11, 2025
Market Performance:
S&P 500 up 1.78%, hitting new all-time highs in a short four-day trading week. Mid-caps (+2.9%) and small-caps (+3.4%) outperformed, though small-caps down over 2% year-to-date. NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and NYSE also set new highs with a golden cross on S&P 500 daily chart. Volume below average due to holiday.
Market Trends and Sentiment:
S&P 500 in a positive trend, weekly charts turning bullish. Sentiment extremely positive, potentially overbought (Fear and Greed Index at 78, asset manager sentiment at 99.3). Overbought daily and weekly charts suggest possible pullback or consolidation for July 7-11.
Key Developments:
Big Beautiful Bill passed, making tax cuts permanent, adding $3.3T to deficit over a decade. Futures down 0.6% over the weekend. Employment report strong (4.1% unemployment, 147,000 jobs), but private payrolls weaker. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.35%, reducing July 31 rate cut odds (95.3% for no change). Vietnam trade deal and Apple’s AI news boosted the markets.
Sector and Asset Performance:
Materials led (+4%), discretionary improved, utilities/healthcare/energy lagged but positive. Tech, industrials, communication strong (SCTR scores 80s-90s). Growth outperforming value. Commodities (copper, silver) and bonds in uptrends, dollar weak. Gold underperforming stocks but outperforming the dollar.
Technical Indicators:
Advance-decline lines, new highs/lows, momentum oscillators (RSI, PMO) confirm uptrend. McClellan Oscillator and bullish percent index show overbought conditions. Mass Index hints at reversal, but early July seasonality is positive. Heiken Ashi, Kagi, Renko charts bullish.
Economic and Seasonal Outlook:
No recession signals (Sahm Rule at 0.17). Inflation slightly up but manageable; GDP forecasts positive (2-3% growth). Early July historically strong, though volume drops in July/August. Post-election years often robust, with potential dip in late June/early July before strength.
Risks and Considerations
Geopolitical risks (Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine) a concern. Extreme sentiment and overbought conditions warrant caution. Continuous claims (1.9M) and declining Q2 earnings estimates signal potential softening. Market eyes September for possible 25-basis-point rate cut.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!