S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday June 30, 2025

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Market Summary for Friday, June 27, 2025:
Market Performance: The NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, with the NASDAQ 100 driving gains due to overlapping stocks. The market closed up 0.52%, supported by above-average volume, recovering from intraday losses.
Market Dynamics: Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with mega-cap and semiconductor stocks leading. Small and mid-cap stocks also performed well. The market showed resilience despite mixed economic data.
Economic Data: Core PCE showed higher-than-expected inflation (up 0.2% month-over-month, 2.7% annualized) and declining personal income (-0.4%) and spending (-0.1%). Consumer sentiment improved slightly to 60.7 but remains below last year’s 68.2.
Geopolitical and Trade News: US-China trade framework agreement to boost rare earth exports was positive. Trump’s Truth Social post about Canadian tariffs (400% dairy tariffs, digital services tax) caused a midday market dip. BBB with significant tax cuts is under Senate review, targeting a July 4 signing.
Technical Indicators: Momentum oscillators (e.g., Stochastic RSI, Williams %R, CCI) show short- and intermediate-term strength but are at overbought levels. The S&P 500 is above key moving averages, close to a golden cross. The NASDAQ 100 already achieved a golden cross.
Seasonality: Historically positive for early July, especially for the NASDAQ, though no guarantees. Monday, June 30, marks the end of the quarter, potentially leading to portfolio adjustments.
Concerns: Lack of strong conviction in upward moves, potential geopolitical risks (e.g., Israel-Iran), and a bearish overbought signal on RSI 14. Interest rates rose slightly to 4.28% (10-year yield), and the dollar bounced but remains in a downtrend.
Outlook for Monday: Neutral to positive seasonality for the last day of June. Upcoming economic data includes Chicago PMI, with ISM manufacturing and employment reports later in the week. Markets close on July 4.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is trending positively, driven by growth stocks, but overbought signals and geopolitical risks warrant caution.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!