The Iran Ceasefire was Holding—But Netanyahu Couldn’t Help Himself

Right, so when your last war ends with $20 billion in damages, your “surgical” strikes hit everything but their targets, and your military pride gets pounded into rubble by a barrage of enemy missiles, you’d think the smart move would be to step back, regroup, and maybe—just maybe—reconsider your approach. That the problem isn’t them, its you. But for Israel’s leadership, failure, rather than being a lesson to learn from, being a deterrent to repeating the same mistakes; efforts must simply be redoubled instead. Still mere days after being handed their backsides on a plate by Iran’s Operation True Promise III, Israel’s leaders aren’t reflecting—they’re plotting and not subtly either. According to reports, they have been caught red-handed scheming to stage a false flag attack on US territory and pin the blame on Iran, all in a desperate bid to drag Washington back into war against Iran on their behalf, warnings of Israel doing such a thing already having come out some time ago, desperate as Netanyahu is.
The plan was foiled—thankfully—thanks to a timely warning from an unnamed third country. But the very fact that such a dangerous deception was allegedly in motion reveals a disturbing truth: Israel’s appetite for war is matched only by its contempt for international norms, and its faith that the United States will cover the tab, clean up the mess, and keep believing the lies. With Trump back on the scene barking threats, depleted uranium being thrown at Iran, much as they did to Lebanon last year and Netanyahu’s government pretending the last disaster was just a dress rehearsal and they’ll be ready for the real thing next time, one thing does seem clear: the sequel to Israel’s failed war with Iran may already be in production and this time the stakes are even higher stakes and Israel have even fewer scruples.
Right, so the twelve-day war between Israel and Iran left a scar across the Middle East, that should have prompted some sober reflection, diplomacy, and de-escalation. Instead, Israel appears determined to reignite hostilities, emboldened not by success, they didn’t have any, they failed on every one of their stated goals of ending Iran’s nuclear program and initiating regime change, but by desperation. Despite sustaining enormous losses—military, economic, and reputational—Tel Aviv is once again potentially laying the groundwork for renewed confrontation with Tehran. And this has been ramped up all the more by recent reports suggesting this effort has included a foiled false flag operation meant to strike US territory and blame Iran, a ploy that, had it succeeded, could have triggered catastrophic conflict.
This news has come courtesy of Skwawkbox and Tehran Times and revealed that Israeli operatives had planned a false flag attack on the US with the intent of blaming Iran. The operation, reportedly thwarted by an unnamed third country that shared intelligence with the United States and Tehran, was a calculated attempt to provoke American military intervention against Iran during a fragile ceasefire. According to the report, the scheme bore all the hallmarks of Israeli clandestine operations—precision, deniability, and manipulation of foreign policy through deceit, but without any details as to what the operation actually was, nor who issued the warning.
This is not without precedent. Historical instances, such as the 1954 Lavon Affair, in which Israeli agents attempted to bomb British and American civilian targets in Egypt to sour relations between Cairo and the West. There have also been persisting allegations that the shooting of two Israeli embassy staff in Washington just last month was also a false flag and these illustrate a disturbing pattern: Israel’s willingness to engineer pretexts for war for their own ends, that actually undermines all of its claims of self-defence and reveals a deeper, more cynical agenda - that the perpetuation of their regional dominance through manufactured conflict is more important to them than peace. Especially right now when Netanyahu has failed to push back his corruption trial again, so he needs another war, its kept working for him up until now hasn’t it?
That the US government is now fully aware of this latest deception should, in theory, constrain its future actions. Any American political figure—particularly Donald Trump—who echoes anti-Iran rhetoric now and he absolutely is of course, does so in full knowledge that a key ally has attempted to manipulate them into war. Of course with so many other news outlets seemingly ignoring this story may mean there isn’t much in it on one hand, but a cynic might figure its being played down heavily due to the further damage such revelations might do to public perception of Israel, already decimated as that has been.
The backdrop to this false flag plot of course has been the dramatic exchange of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Israel’s pre-emptive strike, Operation Rising Lion, was framed as a decisive blow against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. In reality, it proved ineffectual and precipitated a far more devastating response. Iran’s Operation True Promise III targeted over thirty Israeli military and industrial sites, including drone manufacturing facilities, intelligence outposts, and even a pilot training centre.
The scale of damage inflicted by Iran was unprecedented. Initial Israeli estimates put the economic cost of the war at approximately $20 billion, a figure that includes both physical infrastructure damage and the vast expenditure on defensive measures such as missile interceptors. The Israeli government was subsequently forced to request additional US financial assistance, a humiliating admission of how ill-prepared it was for Iranian retaliation, drastically under-estimated as that was.
Iran’s strategic use of hypersonic and low-altitude missiles, including the Fattah-1, came as a massive shock to Israel and the US, especially in how it overwhelmed Israeli and US air defence systems. Notably, the US expended over $800 million worth of THAAD missiles—roughly 20% of the global stockpile of these munitions—to defend Israel over the 12-day conflict. Despite this investment, Iran’s projectiles struck their targets, demonstrating that advanced Western missile defences were no match for Iran’s evolving military technology.
Rather than acknowledge its strategic missteps though, the Israeli government has adopted a posture of renewed aggression. The increasingly insane Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has publicly threatened to resume attacks on Iranian missile sites and nuclear facilities, claiming that Operation Rising Lion was merely a “preview.” Such rhetoric is not only irresponsible but disingenuous and hypocritical with it. If, as Katz claims, as Trump has claimed, that Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed, why the need for renewed strikes?
European intelligence reports have also since contradicted Israeli and American claims of success. According to The Cradle, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles survived the attacks and remain intact. Furthermore, in response to the violations of its sovereignty, Iran passed legislation ending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), effectively severing one of the few remaining links to nuclear diplomacy, blaming IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi as Iran does of destroying any trust or good faith they have in the agency, following allegations of IAEA leaks to Israel concerning Iran’s nuclear program..
The hypocrisy here ought to be glaring by now when it comes to Israeli and Iranian nuclear assets. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and maintains a clandestine nuclear arsenal, that they deny, but is one of the worst kept global secrets going. Yet it demands transparency and compliance from Iran, who still are a signatory state operating within the framework of the NPT, so the double standard is both legally and morally indefensible, yet still world leaders do it, met increasingly by the boos and jeers of people refusing to accept such drivel.
Iranian officials have also, quite rightly, framed Israel’s actions as violations of international law. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the 12-day conflict as a clear act of aggression under Article 39 of the United Nations Charter and a blatant breach of Article 2(4), which prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity of another state. He further warned that had Iran not responded proportionally, the conflict could have escalated into a “widespread and uncontrollable” war. Certainly they had a right to defend themselves, though there were fears with the conflict ongoing that it would spread also. Ultimately, until Israel is reined in, that fear hasn’t actually gone away still I would argue.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also criticised the ongoing ceasefire, stating that Iran would not accept any halt to operations that, as is the case with Lebanon, implied an uneven agreement and certainly with Lebanon abiding by a ceasefire that Israel have abused hundreds of times over now, his comments have been interpreted as a rebuke to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, for letting this situation persist.
Meanwhile, Iran has intensified its internal counterintelligence operations, targeting Israeli espionage networks and an interesting bit of info has come out bearing out their justification for doing so. An audio recording that has been authenticated by the Washington Post captured Mossad operatives threatening Iranian officials and their families with death unless they complied with demands to sabotage Iranian institutions. Western media has again, largely downplayed this incident, instead framing Iran’s arrests and crackdowns of suspected Mossad spy rings in their territory as authoritarian repression which is just surreal, but again all serves a narrative that shields Israeli misconduct from scrutiny.
Further complicating the humanitarian landscape are reports, much more widely reported, that Israel has used depleted uranium munitions during its strikes on Iran. Depleted uranium is a byproduct of the nuclear enrichment process, is known for its armour-piercing capabilities and has been used in such applications—but it is also known for its long-term health risks. International health organizations have linked depleted uranium exposure to increased rates of leukaemia, kidney failure, and congenital abnormalities, particularly among children.
This is also not the first time Israel has used depleted uranium. Similar weapons were deployed in Lebanon in October of last year. The United States has also been widely criticised for its use of depleted uranium during the 1991 and 2003 invasions of Iraq, which has led to cancer epidemics in several Iraqi cities.
Amid all of these developments, the tangerine tyrant that is Donald Trump has re-entered the debate with his characteristic belligerence combined with unerring stupidity. Following Ayatollah Khamenei’s declaration that Iran had “won” the conflict with Israel, Trump publicly mocked the Iranian leader and threatened renewed strikes. “His country was decimated,” Trump claimed, adding that he had deliberately spared Khamenei’s life despite knowing “exactly where he was sheltered.” Saying that the Ayatollah should thank Trump for this.
Trump has also halted what remained of sanctions relief for Iran and implied that any resumption of enrichment activities—still Iran’s legal right under the NPT—would trigger another US military response, so who needs Israel to plant a false flag if that’s his attitude? Such threats not only undermine diplomatic efforts but further validate Iran’s decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, who would report it, even if trust between them and Iran hadn’t been so badly damaged as it has.
Israel’s efforts to restart war with Iran—through false flag operations, the foul use of depleted uranium, and ongoing military threats—represent a profound danger not only to the Middle East but to international law and global stability. That the United States is aware of Israel’s deception and continues to support Tel Aviv regardless is a damning indictment of its foreign policy priorities. Donald Trump’s rhetoric, meanwhile, only adds fuel to a fire that has already burned too many.
Iran’s response, which has been militarily effective, diplomatically assertive, and legally grounded, has so far averted a wider catastrophe but for how much longer given Netanyahu needs another distraction fast and Trump appears to be sending out the same messaging. The alleged foiled false flag plot needs to still serve as a warning at the very least, that should the world continue to ignore Israel’s provocations, the next war they instigate could be far worse.
Further warfare might be being mooted again between Israel and Iran, but Israel have already struck again, just not quite in the same way. They’ve launched another attack on Iran, but this time there’s a bit of a twist to it. Check out this video recommendation here to find out more about that as your suggested next watch.
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