Israel’s Next Battle

After its war on Iran ended with a sudden ceasefire, Israel appears to be preparing for its next big battle in the Middle East.

Israel started the war on June 13, stating that its goal was to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. joined the war on June 22, attacking three key nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The Iranians retaliated with a symbolic attack, targeting the American Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar with a few missiles on June 24, just a few hours before a ceasefire was announced.

While the success of the attack on Iran’s nuclear program is still being debated, Israel has already begun to escalate on other fronts.

In Lebanon, on June 24, Israel bombed rocket launchers and weapons depots of Hezbollah north of the Litani River, where the group is allowed to deploy under a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. last November. The very next day, an Israeli drone strike killed Haytham Abdullah Bakri in the town of Kfar Dajjal. The Israeli military said that the man was involved in transferring funds from Iran to Hezbollah.

Escalation was also reported in Syria, where two large blasts rocked weapons depots, one in the district of Mezzeh to the west of the capital, Damascus, on June 24, and another near Al-Sinn Lake on the coast on June 25. State media said that the first blast was the result of an exercise while the second was caused by a fire, but footage posted to social networks suggest that they were very likely caused by Israeli strikes.

Meanwhile in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military took a blow on June 24 when seven of its troops were killed after their armored vehicle was blown up by Hamas in the city of Khan Younis.

Doubling down on its ongoing large-scale offensive in the Palestinian enclave, the military announced on June 25 that it was withdrawing the 252nd Reserve Division from the central and northern Gaza, and replacing it with the 99th Division.

Overall, Israel appears to be preparing for its next big battle. While Gaza remains a priority for Israel, the fate of the remaining hostages there will likely force the Israeli government to prioritize talks for the time being. Israel could, however, resume war on Hezbollah, as a follow up for the attack on Iran.

A new attack on Syria can’t also be ruled out, despite the ongoing talks with the country’s interim government. Israel will likely attempt to weaken Syria even further in order to extract even more concessions in any future peace deal.

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