S&P 500 Weekly Update for June 23-27, 2025

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Monday, June 23, 2025
Weekly Update
A shortened trading week (June 16–20, 2025) saw the S&P 500 dip slightly by 0.15%, with markets closed Thursday and resuming Friday. Trading volume spiked on Friday due to options expiration (triple/quadruple witching) but was otherwise below average. Daily charts indicate weakening trends with negative momentum signals (e.g., Chaiken Money Flow, McClellan Oscillator), though weekly charts remain resilient, with the S&P 500 holding above its 50-week moving average and positive indicators such as the RSI and Heikin-Ashi chart.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran with potential U.S. involvement, are driving oil prices above $74, boosting the energy sector. The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England maintained unchanged rates, with the Fed’s projections slightly raising inflation and unemployment forecasts while still expecting two rate cuts by year-end. Economic data showed weaker-than-expected retail sales (-0.9%, or -0.3% ex-autos) and elevated continuing jobless claims, with tariff-driven inflation concerns lingering.
Sector performance was led by energy, tech (+0.9%), and financials, while healthcare, communication, materials, and discretionary lagged. Year-to-date, industrials, utilities, and communication are top performers, with discretionary and healthcare trailing. Other assets show oil and commodities rising, gold as the best-performing asset in 2025, and a weakening U.S. dollar. Bonds underperforming stocks, but copper’s uptrend signals economic resilience.
Sentiment remains neutral (Fear and Greed Index at 55), with the VIX above 20 signaling caution but not extreme fear. Seasonally, June is modestly positive (up 58% of the time, 0.2% return), but the second half and summer months often bring lower volume and volatility. The outlook points to indecision driven by geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals, with key S&P resistance at 6,050 and the 10-year yield below 4.5% as levels to watch.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!