S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday June 23, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Friday, June 20, 2025
Market Context: The market was closed on Thursday, resulting in a four-day trading week, which slightly disrupted normal trading patterns. The S&P 500 closed down 0.22% on Friday, reflecting some weakness but maintaining positive short, intermediate, and long-term trends. However, the market is not trending, as indicated by the ADX below 20, and momentum oscillators are drifting lower, potentially signaling a self-fulfilling negative sentiment.
Friday’s Trading Activity:
The S&P 500 opened with a gap higher above R1 at 6,009 but declined below the daily pivot (5,990) and the unchanged level, finding support at 5,962 before closing just above S1.
High volatility and volume were driven by triple/quadruple witching (quarterly options expiration), with trading possibly influenced by round-number strike prices.
Economic and Geopolitical Factors:
Weak economic reports (e.g., Philadelphia Fed Index at -4 vs. expected +0.3, Leading Economic Index down 0.1%) raises concerns about economic health. Upcoming reports, including S&P Global PMIs, existing home sales, core PCE, and consumer sentiment, will be key.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Israel and Iran, and potential U.S. involvement, are influencing market sentiment. President Trump indicated a decision on Iran within two weeks.
The 10-year yield remains below 4.5% at 4.38%, supporting the markets. The dollar weakened, aiding stocks but impacting currency exchange rates.
Federal Reserve Commentary:
Fed Governor Waller suggested possible rate cuts as early as July, dismissing tariff-driven inflation concerns, but clarified this was his personal view. Richmond Fed President Barkin sees no rush to cut rates, citing tariff uncertainty and economic resilience.
Sector and Market Performance:
Mega caps and semiconductors underperformed, partly due to potential Trump administration policies revoking waivers for U.S. chip technology in China.
Oil prices are above $74. The VIX closed at 20.62, indicating elevated volatility.
Growth outperformed value intraday, but both drifted lower. Small and mid-caps showed relative resilience, with small caps nearly unchanged.
Technical Indicators:
The 20-period moving average is providing support for the short-term trend, but vulnerability is increasing. Momentum oscillators (e.g., Stochastics, PMO, MACD) are turning negative, though some remain in extreme positive territory.
Smart money indicators (e.g., Accumulation Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, Chaikin Oscillator) are negative, signaling caution. The advance-decline line is holding above its moving averages but shows weakening breadth.
The S&P 500’s daily chart shows lower highs and lows over the last few trading sessions, breaking the bullish pattern of higher highs and lows. The weekly chart remains intact but shows a slight 0.15% decline for the week.
Sentiment and Seasonality:
Sentiment is neutral, ticking up slightly to 55 despite the down day. Individual investor sentiment turned net negative.
Seasonally, summer is typically weak for equities, and the week after options expiration tends to be negative, though the S&P shows neutral to positive seasonality for June 23.
Outlook for Monday, June 23:
The S&P 500 remains positive across all time frames but lacks trend momentum. Key economic data and geopolitical developments over the weekend (e.g., Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine, U.S. protests, tariff news) will influence sentiment.
Pivot points for Monday are available on the YouTube community tab. The market’s reaction to upcoming economic reports and any geopolitical escalations will be critical.
Conclusion: The S&P 500 is positive but not trending, with emerging weaknesses in momentum and breadth. Investors should monitor economic data and geopolitical events closely, as these could drive volatility.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!