Signal versus Noise - Episode 4 - Bonds: The Asymmetric Trade

Episode 4 – Bonds: The Asymmetric Trade (June 17th, 2025)
Participants: Edward Dowd and Carlos Alegria
In this episode we talk about inflation and what appears to be the biggest asymmetric trade opportunity at the moment: fixed income. Our inflation outlook is explained in our new tenant rent report which points to slowing rent inflation for the coming months, which is a driving force that we expect will bring CPI below 2% in the near future.
On the short term, the Israel-Iran hostilities and the rise in oil price from 60$ a barrel to above 70$ could lead to a short-lived rise in inflation. On a medium term, the rise in oil prices, if sustained, will be deflationary for the economy, which will have a negative impact on overall demand. The volatility in oil prices as a reaction to the developments of the conflict will likely lead to confounding inflation numbers, which will need to be scrutinized to understand the real underlying trend.
We also discuss US real estate and our newly released report which points to housing weakness being led by multi-family house building. Our US real estate reports corroborate our report US Economy outlook for 2025, published in January 2025, which warns of the unwinding of the illegal immigration policies during 2020-2024 being a risk for the US real estate market in 2025 and 2026.
The reports we mention in our session are available on our website and store which can be reached through the links below.
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Phinance Technologies Website: https://phinancetechnologies.com
US Real Estate Reports:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/EconomicReports_USRealEstate.htm
- Cracks in the housing market. New Tenant Rent Analysis. https://payhip.com/b/BfEUA
- The multi-family housing debacle. https://payhip.com/b/z06qS
US Economy report:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm
Free Resources:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Phitech_resources.htm
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