Deep Dive Update: VIX, S&P 500, and Market Insights for June 16, 2025

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The Deep Dive Update is a weekend update charts from daily videos are reviewed, focusing on those not used or discontinued during the week, to provide additional context and insights. Informational charts are also discussed. Prepared for Monday, June 16, 2025.
Key points:
VIX Analysis: The 50-period exponential moving average of the VIX (volatility index) remains below 20, suggesting a positive market outlook despite a Friday pullback. The VIX rose above 20 daily but not on a longer-term basis, indicating the decline may be temporary.
VIX Correlations: The VIX-to-S&P 500 correlation and VVIX (volatility of VIX) ratio provide no significant insights, as they remain below critical thresholds.
SKEW Index: Nearing the red zone, it suggests potential for a big market move, but context from other charts is needed to determine direction.
Ulcer Index: Below its moving average, indicating low fear in the market.
Stock vs. Bond Volatility: The declining moving average of this ratio is positive.
Market Performance: The S&P 500 is up 71.04% from October 2022 lows, 45.65% from October 2023, and 23.62% from April 7, 2025. It remains above the 200-period moving average, supporting a positive long-term trend.
Advance-Decline Lines: Mixed signals, with volume-based metrics showing recent strength compared to price. This could be positive.
Sector Ratios: Discretionary vs. staples and tech vs. utilities ratios show sideways or slight weakness, reflecting mixed sector performance.
Bellwether Stocks: Semiconductors, retail, and transportation weakened on Friday; home builders and regional banks remain weak.
Geopolitical Impact: Friday’s market decline was linked to Israel-Iran tensions, boosting defensive assets such as oil (mid-70s) and gold.
Index Scores: NASDAQ 100 (70.5) leads, followed by NASDAQ Composite (58.4), S&P 500 (55.2), with Dow (18.7), mid-caps, and small-caps (7.2) lagging.
Technical Indicators: Short- and intermediate-term trends remain positive, with support levels such as the 20-period moving average in focus. Bollinger Bands suggest low volatility, potentially preceding a big move.
Global Markets: German DAX outperforming but pulled back; U.S. vs. international stock ratios are range-bound.
Bonds and Yields: Stable bond ratios and declining treasury yields (e.g., 2-year) are positive. The 10-year minus 3-month yield curve fluctuating near zero.
Market Breadth: Stocks above 50- and 200-day moving averages remain above 50%, but small-caps weakened below 50.
Will be monitoring retail sales and financial sector performance, noting improving SPY vs staples ratio as a positive sign.

PDF of Slides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ubu2Rrc4FViwiZKb--zqAdlEtg4sQ1ut/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!