Summer Summit Segment - Ned Ryun

On June 7, 2025, Ned Ryun, founder and CEO of American Majority, delivered a speech at the Virginia Tea Party Summer Summit titled "Ballot Chasing as the Winning Strategy for Virginia." His talk focused on leveraging absentee ballot and early voting strategies to increase Republican voter turnout, particularly among mid to low propensity voters, to secure victories in the 2025 Virginia elections. Ryun drew on the success of these tactics in the 2024 presidential election and outlined a detailed plan for their application in Virginia.

Understanding Ballot Chasing
Ballot chasing, also known as ballot harvesting, involves targeted efforts to ensure voters who request absentee ballots complete and return them. This strategy includes multiple contact methods such as live door knocks, phone calls, peer-to-peer texting, and reminder postcards, aiming for at least seven to nine touches to motivate voters. Ryun emphasized targeting mid to low propensity voters—those who vote inconsistently (rated 1 or 2 out of 4 on voter propensity scales)—as they are less likely to vote without encouragement. He noted that about 80% of these voters who request a ballot will vote if properly engaged, significantly boosting turnout.

Success in the 2024 Elections

Ryun highlighted the effectiveness of ballot chasing in the 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump won with 312 electoral votes against Kamala Harris's 226 (2024 United States presidential election - Wikipedia). He detailed specific achievements in battleground states:
Wisconsin: Achieved a 94.4% absentee ballot return rate, helping Trump win by less than 1 point by narrowing the Democratic early vote lead from 600,000 to 200,000.

Arizona: Secured an 84% return rate, increasing the Republican absentee ballot advantage from 15,000 to 80,000, contributing to Trump's 5.5-point victory.

Nevada: Focused on Clark County, reducing the Democratic margin from 9 points in 2020 to 2 points in 2024, with nearly 700,000 door knocks.

North Carolina: Generated about 43,000 ballots, leading to a 3.3% Trump victory, with approximately 150,000 voters casting ballots earlier than usual.

These successes were driven by data-driven approaches, removing returned voters from contact lists to focus resources on those yet to vote, and significant funding for voter outreach.

Strategic Importance of Political Power
Ryun argued that Republicans must embrace absentee and early voting to gain and maintain political power, as these are the current electoral rules. He expressed a preference for Election Day-only voting with paper ballots but acknowledged that changing these rules requires political control, which can only be achieved by mastering current methods. He warned that losing the 2026 elections could lead to Trump's impeachment and derail Republican agendas, emphasizing the need to hold power through 2030, when census-driven redistricting could favor red states (Virginia 2025 elections - Ballotpedia).

Florida as a Model
Ryun pointed to Florida as a successful case study, where consistent voter registration, ballot generation, and voter roll cleanup transformed it from a battleground to a solidly Republican state with a 1.3 million voter registration advantage. Florida's Republican Party invests $10-12 million annually to chase 1.1-1.3 million ballots, achieving an 81% return rate, a model Ryun aims to replicate in states like Arizona and Nevada.

Virginia Strategy for 2025
For the 2025 Virginia elections, scheduled for November 4, 2025, with early voting starting September 19 (Virginia Dept. of Elections: Upcoming Elections), Ryun proposed a focused strategy:

Targeted Races: Focus on 15 key House of Delegates races to flip the chamber from a 51-49 Democratic majority to a 51-49 Republican majority. He also expressed optimism about retaining the Attorney General position, though the governor's race, featuring Abigail Spanberger (D) and Winsome Earle-Sears (R), is expected to be challenging.

Timeline: Begin field efforts in June with issue advocacy to build momentum, ramping up door knocks, calls, and texts in September when ballots drop.

Key Issues: Engage voters with messages on checks and balances (to counter Democratic control), housing costs, crime, immigration, transgender issues, and abortion, identified through data as resonating with mid to low propensity Republican-leaning voters.

Challenges: Virginia's redistricting has shifted the electoral map, turning a +12 Republican advantage into a +4 Democratic advantage in some districts. Additionally, Virginia voters are less receptive to mail voting, with Democrats holding a 340,000 advantage on the permanent absentee ballot list (722,000 total voters).

Ryun noted that while mail voting is less effective in Virginia, early voting has shown promise, with 192,000 new mail voters in 2024 showing progress.

Implementation Details
Ryun's organization, American Majority Action (a C4 entity), will lead these efforts, using a data-driven approach to track ballot returns and focus outreach. He plans to deploy door knockers, phone teams, and texting campaigns, aiming for a 20% connection rate on door knocks. The strategy includes:

Voter Registration: Increase Republican voter registration to build a stronger base.

Voter Roll Cleanup: Advocate for cleaning voter rolls to ensure electoral integrity.

Early Voting Push: Encourage voters to vote as soon as early voting begins, with the last day to request absentee ballots on October 24, 2025.

Broader Implications
Ryun framed ballot chasing as essential for dismantling the administrative state and countering what he calls the "un-American left." He sees the 2025 elections as a critical step toward maintaining Republican momentum through 2026, 2028, and 2030, when redistricting could further favor Republicans. He urged the audience to vote early themselves and mobilize others, emphasizing that "winning is sexy" and requires disciplined, unsexy work like voter outreach.

Controversies and Considerations
Ballot chasing is controversial, with critics arguing it risks vote misappropriation or fraud, leading some states to restrict third-party ballot collection (Ballot collecting - Wikipedia). In Virginia, where such restrictions exist, Ryun's strategy focuses on encouraging voters to return ballots themselves rather than collecting them. The approach requires significant resources, and its success depends on overcoming voter skepticism and logistical challenges in a state with a history of competitive elections.

Ned Ryun's speech underscores the strategic importance of ballot chasing for Republican success in Virginia's 2025 elections. By replicating 2024's successes, focusing on key races, and addressing voter concerns, Ryun believes Republicans can overcome electoral challenges and secure a foothold in Virginia, contributing to a broader national strategy to maintain political power.