Market Summary June 11, 2025 CPI Impact, Sector Trends & Thursday June 12 Outlook

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Market Summary for Wednesday, June 11, 2025. Outlook for Thursday June 12, 2025
CPI Report Impact: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was weaker than expected, with a month-over-month increase of 0.1% (vs. 0.2% expected) but a year-over-year rise to 2.4% (from 2.3%). Core CPI remained at 2.8%, disappointing markets hoping for a decline, leading to a negative market reaction despite an initial positive response.

Market Performance: The market opened higher but pulled back after hitting resistance at R1 (6,054). It breached the daily pivot (6,027), found support at S1 (6,012), and closed slightly below the daily pivot, down 0.27%. Volume remained below average.

Market Trends: The market is positive in short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes (above 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages) but lacks a clear trend, as indicated by the ADX below 20. Momentum is mixed, with some indicators (e.g., StochRSI, Williams%R, CCI charts) showing extreme positive readings suggesting positive momentum.

Sector and Asset Performance: Semiconductors and energy showed strength, with semis attempting to lead tech, a positive sign for the market. Defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare) outperformed, while growth areas (tech, communication) saw declines. Oil rose above $65, potentially inflationary. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.41%, supporting stocks.

Trade News: US-China trade talks were underwhelming, with no new developments but an agreement to implement prior commitments. The US Court of Appeals upheld Trump’s 55% tariffs on China. Potential US-India and US-EU trade deals were mentioned but had little market impact.

Technical Indicators: The VIX rose to 17.26 but remains below 20, indicating low volatility. Advance-decline lines and bullish percent indices are showing mixed signals, with some internal weakness but overall positive momentum. Growth-to-value ratios and discretionary-to-staples ratios suggest a pullback rather than a reversal.

Sentiment and Other Data: Sentiment dipped slightly to 62 (from 63). The Treasury budget deficit improved to -$316 billion (from -$347 billion). Mortgage applications rose with lower interest rates. Airline traffic declined year-over-year, a potential growth concern.

Outlook for Thursday, June 12, 2025

Key Events: Initial jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports are due, both significant. Geopolitical developments (e.g., US riots, Russia-Ukraine, Israel) and consumer sentiment (due Friday) could influence markets.

Seasonality: Historical data suggests a positive bias for June 12, though post-election years show mixed results with potential weakness later in June.

Conclusion:

The market remains positive across timeframes but is not trending, with mixed momentum and a potential for a rough patch if negative sentiment persists. Smart money indicators lean negative, but long-term growth-to-value ratios and select bullish indices remain supportive.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!