S&P 500 to New All Time High? What to Watch Update June 9, 2025 Key Charts & Indicators

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What to Watch Update for Monday June 9, 2025
Can the S&P 500 to Make a New All-Time High?
The S&P 500 is nearing a potential breakout above 6,000, targeting its all-time high of 6132.30, after a 1.5% weekly gain driven by a strong jobs report. Positive indicators include higher highs and lows, a VIX below 20 (16-17, signaling low fear), and possible FAANG leadership with a recent golden cross. Large-cap growth outperforming value, with 63.6% of stocks above their 20-day moving average and 52.2% above their 200-day, supported by improving breadth (McClellan Oscillator, bullish percent index). Risk-on signals (high-beta vs. low-beta, stocks-to-bonds) and technicals (moving average rainbows, parabolic SAR, triple-top breakout) suggest positive momentum.
However, risks persist: the S&P lacks a short-term trend (ADX below 20), with low volume and declining momentum oscillators (MACD, PPO, TTM Squeeze). Small caps and financials underperform, with semiconductors in a downtrend and retail lagging. The 10-year yield above 4.5% and international markets (e.g., DAX) outperforming the U.S. add caution. Chaiken Money Flow is flat, and the Zahorchak method is neutral (0).
Areas to Watch:
Employment: Jobless claims are rising but below 300,000; continuing claims (1.9M) need monitoring.
Inflation/Bonds: Stable TIPS and junk bond spreads suggest no inflation spike, but yields are a headwind.
Sectors: Discretionary-to-staples and tech-to-utilities ratios need follow-through. Semiconductors, homebuilders, and transports must break sideways trends.
Global Factors: A weak dollar (under 100) and low oil prices ($60s) support stocks, but geopolitical risks linger. The DAX’s new high could lift sentiment.
Gold: S&P outperforming gold is bullish, but a reversal could signal risk-off.
Outlook: A breakout above 6,000 requires sustained volume and broader sector participation (especially financials). Without it, the S&P may stay range-bound or pull back to last week’s low (596.86). Monitor employment, yields, and key sectors for direction.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!