Market Update for June 9-13, 2025 S&P 500 Hits 6000, Tech Leads, Rates & Data in Focus

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Market Update Summary (June 2-6, 2025)
Market Performance:
S&P 500: Up 1.5% for the week, closing at the 6,000 level, which acted as resistance on Thursday but support on Friday.
Dow: Up 1.2%.
NASDAQ: Up 2.2%.
Small Caps: Had a strong week but remain below 200-day moving averages, showing no significant progress year-to-date.
Volume: Consistently below average, indicating cautious investor participation.
Technical Indicators:
Weekly Charts: Weakening trend (ADX dropping), negative but improving with the green line (buyers) rising and red line (sellers) falling.
Daily Charts: No clear trend, with sideways movement and low conviction.
FAANG Index: Generated a golden cross on the daily chart, turning positive on the weekly side, suggesting potential leadership from mega-cap stocks.
S&P 500: Above 50-week and 13-week moving averages, showing longer-term strength despite bring in a downtrend.
Smart Money Indicators: Positive signals from accumulation/distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, and other oscillators, though some daily indicators remain neutral or negative.
Sector Performance:
Strong Sectors: Technology and communication led gains; industrials also performed well.
Weak Sectors: Consumer discretionary (impacted by Tesla’s 14% drop on Thursday, recovering over 3.5% on Friday), staples, and utilities showed weakness.
Energy: Bounced back but remains weak year-to-date.
Semiconductors: Improved, but need sustained strength to drive markets.
Key Economic Factors:
Interest Rates: 10-year yield closed at 4.51%, a level historically that has pressured stocks. Rising rates could challenge short-term market performance, while falling rates may provide support.
Employment Report: Stronger than expected, reducing recession fears, though prior months’ revisions downward are a concern.
Trade Talks: U.S.-China talks resuming in London on June 9 could impact sentiment.
OPEC: Plans to increase oil production in July, keeping oil prices down.
OECD Forecast: Global GDP revised down to 2.9% (from 3.1%), U.S. GDP to 1.6% (from 2.2%) for 2025.
ISM Services: Fell to 49.9, signaling contraction in the service-based U.S. economy.
Market Sentiment and Risks:
Sentiment: The VIX is below 20, suggesting lower fear but cautious optimism. The euphoria meter shows a slight uptick but remains in positive territory.
Recession Probability: Yield curve-based indicators suggest a declining but still present risk.
Debt-to-GDP: Likely to rise with proposed $4 trillion reconciliation bill, contributing to market uncertainty.
Musk-Trump Feud: Created pop-interest, particularly impacting Tesla, but largely seen as temporary noise.
Looking Ahead (June 9-13, 2025):
Key Events: CPI and PPI data releases, Federal Reserve meeting on June 18 (97.4% chance rates remain at 4.25-4.5%).
Market Outlook: Positive but cautious, with potential leadership from tech and mega-caps. Small caps and mid-caps need more follow-through. Interest rates and economic data will be critical.
Seasonal Trends: June historically offers modest gains (0.2% average return, up 58% of the time). The first half of June tends to outperform the second half.
Conclusion: The S&P 500 remains positive but faces challenges from rising interest rates, sector rotation, and economic uncertainties. Tech and communication sectors show promise, but broader participation and sustained volume are needed for a stronger rally.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!