Is the S&P 500 About to Jump This Week? Monday June 9, 2025

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Market Summary for Friday, June 6, 2025, and Outlook for Monday, June 9, 2025
Friday Market Recap:

Employment Report Impact: The U.S. employment report exceeded expectations, with non-farm payrolls at 139,000 (vs. 130,000 expected) and private payrolls at 140,000 (vs. 123,000 expected). However, prior months' data was revised downward which is raising concerns about labor market momentum. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% (vs. 0.3% expected), hinting at inflationary pressure.

Market Performance: The S&P 500 closed at the 6,000 level, a psychological and technical pivot point, after gapping higher post-employment report. The market hit an intraday high near 6,017 but faded late, closing up 1.03%. Volume remained below average, indicating low conviction.

Technical Analysis: The market is positive in short, intermediate, and long-term trends, above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages. However, it’s not trending strongly, with choppy price action around 6,000, acting as both support and resistance. Momentum indicators (e.g., Williams %R, CCI, stochastics) are positive but others declining (e.g., MACD, slope oscillator).

Interest Rates: The 10-year yield rose to 4.51% from 4.39%, potentially capping stock gains as the bond market closed an hour earlier. Rising rates possibly contributed to the late-day fade.

Sentiment and Volatility: Sentiment improved (63 from 58), and the VIX is 20, suggesting reduced fear. The equity put-call ratio indicated some possible weekend hedging.

Sectors and Stocks: All sectors ended positive, with energy leading, followed by discretionary, communication, and tech. Mega-caps (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Apple, Google, Meta) drove gains, while Tesla rebounded 3.67% after a 14% drop on Thursday. Small-caps showed improvement.

Other Factors: Consumer credit surged another $17.9 billion (vs. $10.3 billion expected), signaling increased reliance on credit. The U.S.-China trade talks are set for Monday in London, potentially impacting the markets. The Trump-Musk feud added noise but was seen as theatrical.

Broader Context:

Global Markets: Global stocks (ACWI) are outperforming U.S. stocks, with emerging markets showing stronger economic surprises. Foreign ownership of U.S. assets ($24 trillion net) supports market resilience but poses risks if allocations shift.

Bull Market Duration: The current bull market, starting October 2022, is 32 months old, less than half the average duration of 67 months.

Short Interest: Rising short interest in the S&P 500 could fuel a short-squeeze rally if the market breaks higher.

Monday Outlook:

Key Events: No major reports on Monday (wholesale inventory is minor). Upcoming reports include CPI (Wednesday), jobless claims and PPI (Thursday), and consumer sentiment (Friday), which could influence market direction given heightened emotional sensitivity.

Seasonality: Post-election year seasonality suggests weakness through Wednesday, with a potential bounce by Thursday.

Technical Outlook: The market remains positive but not trending, with 6,000 as a key level. A breakout above with higher volume could signal stronger upside momentum, while a drop below may test support below 6,000. Mixed momentum and below-average volume suggest caution.

Smart Money Indicators: Mixed, with positive signals from bullish percent indexes and McClellan oscillators, but negative signals from the Coppock curve and some momentum oscillators. Growth-to-value and discretionary-to-staples ratios remain above moving averages but are technically negative.

Conclusion:

The market is positive across short, intermediate, and long-term horizons but lacks strong trending momentum. Investors should watch for a decisive move above 6,000 with increased volume or a breakdown below key support levels. Upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments could drive volatility.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!