Daily Update Podcast for Thursday June 5, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Join to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxlaGAKm2ApEs13O1gWDltg/join

Market Summary for Wednesday, June 4, 2025, and Outlook for Thursday, June 5, 2025
Wednesday Recap:
Market Performance: The market ended virtually unchanged (+0.01%) after late-day selling erased earlier gains. Prices hit an intraday high just below R1 (5991) at the open but couldn't sustain above it, finding support at the unchanged level.
Trends and Indicators: The market remains non-trending, with the ADX attempting to turn up but still below the moving average. Positive momentum is seen in short, intermediate, and long-term trends as the market stays above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. The VIX dropped to 17.61, indicating lower volatility. The CCI 20 joined positive indicators, but momentum oscillators are mixed, with the slope oscillator showing short-term negativity.
Volume and Sentiment: Volume remains below average, and sentiment has returned to neutral after a data adjustment from Tuesday’s close.
Economic Reports: Disappointing data included the ISM Services PMI at 49.9 (below 50, signaling contraction), ADP Employment Change at 37,000 (vs. 115,000 expected), and a 3.9% drop in MBA Mortgage Applications. The S&P Global Services PMI was slightly better at 53.7.
Market Dynamics: Mega-cap stocks and semiconductors provided support, with the FANG index hitting a new all-time high. Interest rates fell (10-year yield at 4.36%, down 10 basis points), but this didn’t significantly boost stocks. Tariff and trade war concerns continue to create uncertainty.
Sector Performance: Tech and communication sectors held up, with Meta (+3%) and Netflix (+1.78%) performing strongly, while financials and discretionary lagged. Small caps gave back some gains.
Thursday Outlook:
Economic Data: Key reports include Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and Trade Balance. These could influence market direction, especially if inflationary signals emerge.
Seasonality: Positive seasonality is noted for June 5 across the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ in a post-election year.
Market Expectations: The market remains positive but non-trending, with potential for upside if economic data is favorable or downside/sideways movement if reports disappoint. Continued resilience is expected unless major negative catalysts arise (e.g., geopolitical tensions or weak employment data).
Key Levels: Pivot points for Thursday will guide intraday trading, with focus on whether the market can break above resistance levels or hold support.
Global Context: Europe is outperforming the U.S. in 2025, with lower valuations globally. Global money supply growth (8% annually) supports equities, pushing the ACWI to new highs.
Conclusion: The market is in a choppy, non-trending phase with mixed signals but remains positive across all time frames. Upcoming economic reports, particularly employment data, could provide the conviction needed for a breakout or further consolidation. Investors may focus on individual stock opportunities in this stock picker’s market.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!