Daily Podcast Update for Tuesday June 3, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, June 2, 2025. Outlook for Tuesday June 3, 2025
Market Performance: The market experienced a lower open, similar to Friday, with prices dipping below the daily pivot at 5893 but finding support at S1 (5863). A rebound occurred, pushing prices back above the pivot to close near the intraday high, up 0.41%. Volume was below average, but the market remains positive in short, intermediate, and long-term trends as prices remain above key moving averages.
Market Dynamics: Mega-cap stocks drove strength, while internal market weakness persists, suggesting a lack of broad participation. "Buy the dip" sentiment remains strong, reflecting confidence and fear of missing out (FOMO), though sentiment can shift rapidly. The market is currently in a non-trending, choppy range, awaiting either consolidation for a potential upward move or weakness.
Economic and Policy Factors:
Tariffs and Trade: The U.S. announced a doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective Wednesday, raising concerns about inflation and supply chain disruptions. China accused the U.S. of violating a preliminary trade agreement, but market nerves calmed after Trump announced planned talks with President Xi. Open-ended trade negotiation offers also contributed to positive sentiment.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Came in at 48.5 (below 50, indicating contraction), slightly worse than the expected 49 but better than feared, contributing to a late-day bounce.
Interest Rates: The 10-year yield rose to 4.46% from 4.41%, still below 4.5%, with minimal impact on stocks.
Technical Indicators:
VIX: At 18.36, below 20, indicating lower volatility.
Momentum: Short-term momentum is positive (Williams %R), but other indicators (Stochastics, CCI, Slope Oscillator) show mixed signals with some negative divergences.
Bullish Percent Index: Declined for NASDAQ 100 but remains extreme positive. Other indicators such as the McClellan Oscillator and summation indexes are negative, reflecting internal weakness.
Advance-Decline Line: Flat, with more new highs than lows, but the 10-day advance-decline oscillator is declining, unusual for an up day.
Sector and Stock Performance:
Sectors: Energy performed best, followed by tech, communication, and discretionary closing positive. Industrials were the only sector down.
Key Stocks: Meta (+3.62%) led gains, driven by AI ad initiatives. Nvidia (+1.67%), Amazon (+0.8%), Microsoft (+0.33%), and Apple (+0.42%) were up, while Google (-1.58%) and Tesla (over -1%) declined. Netflix hit another new all-time high.
Indexes: S&P 500 and NASDAQ rebounded above 5,900 and 19,000, respectively. Small caps showed mixed results (S&P 600 down 0.41%, Russell 2000 up 0.33%).
Economic Data:
Construction Spending: Down 0.4% month-over-month (vs. expected +0.1%), with private construction down 0.7% and public up 0.4%.
Imports/Exports: Rising, possibly due to front-running ahead of tariffs.
Market Trends:
Growth outperformed value, particularly in large caps. Mid and small-cap growth-to-value ratios were mixed.
Emerging markets underperforming developed markets, with the U.S. lagging Europe.

Charts and Studies:
Historical data suggests strong returns one month and one year out after a May gain of over 5% (this year +6%).
The S&P 500 P/E ratio is high at 21, with NASDAQ 100 even higher, indicating expensive valuations. S&P 600 Small caps and equal-weighted indexes are more fairly priced, while Russell 2000 small caps re overvalued.
The third year of a bull market (since October 2022) is historically weaker, and financial conditions are loosening, suggesting more liquidity.
Outlook for Tuesday, June 3, 2025:
Economic Calendar: JOLTS job openings data expected. Upcoming reports include ISM services (Wednesday), jobless claims, productivity, and unit labor costs (Thursday), and the employment report (Friday).
Geopolitical Risks: Potential escalations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside tariff and trade war concerns, could impact sentiment.
Technical Outlook: The market remains positive but non-trending, with mixed signals from oscillators and showing internal weakness. Positive seasonality for early June supports a bullish bias, but conviction is lacking.
Conclusion: The market is in a choppy, non-trending phase with a positive bias, currently driven by mega caps. Internal weakness and mixed indicators suggest caution, but dip-buying and positive seasonality support near-term stability.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!