Weekly Combo Podcast for June 2-6, 2025

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Weekly Combo Podcast – June 2, 2025
Weekly Update (May 27–30, 2025)
The S&P 500 gained 1.9%, driven by a Tuesday gap-up after a tariff deferral to July 9, though momentum faded with choppy trading Wednesday to Friday. The Dow rose 1.6%, NASDAQ 2%, and small caps 1.3%. Volume was below average due to the Memorial Day holiday, with a Friday spike. The 10-year yield fell to 4.42% from 4.51%, supporting equities. Nvidia’s strong earnings lifted the markets briefly, but U.S. court rulings on tariff authority and mixed trade signals added uncertainty. Sentiment improved slightly (VIX below 20), but technicals suggest an overbought market with no clear trend, hinting at consolidation or a potential decline.
InterMarket Analysis Update
Valuation: S&P 500’s CAPE ratio at 36.29 signals overvaluation; forward PEs are high for mega-caps (27.4) and S&P (21.2), while mid/small caps face pressure from rates and inflation.
Growth vs. Value: Growth is outperforming value, with ratios above their moving averages, signaling bullishness but potential weakening.
Inflation: CRB index in a long-term uptrend but shows deflationary signals; copper is optimistic, while oil and aluminum are weakening.
Other Markets: Gold/silver up, dollar down (euro, yen, pound outperform), bonds in price uptrends. Tech/communication sectors are resilient; energy/real estate lagging.
Trends: Stocks and bonds are correlating positively; NASDAQ 100 is outperforming, but small caps and semis are lagging. Markets are “tired” amid trade war concerns, with sideways trends dominating.
Deep Dive Update
The S&P 500 is up 69.17% from October 2022, 44.05% from October 2023, and 22.27% from April 2025, but currently lacks conviction. It’s 0.87% below its high and 2.19% above the 200-day MA. Advance-decline lines are holding steady, with NYSE above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, though still in a downtrend. Growth (NDX, score 80) leads over S&P (59) and Dow (24.3); small caps are weak (6.5). VIX at 18.57 indicates some stability, but oscillators (McClellan, MACD) show declining momentum. European stocks (e.g., DAX) are outperforming U.S., and yield curves normalizing signal recession monitoring. The market remains trendless with positive undertones but risks exhaustion.
What to Watch Update (June 2, 2025)
Positives: S&P 500 is holding above key moving averages, VIX below 20, and growth-to-value ratios remain strong. NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Wilshire 5000 are showing resilience. Technicals such as the Landry Light and Chaiken Money Flow are positive.
Negatives: Market fatigue after a 22%+ rise since April; oscillators (McClellan, TRIX) are declining; semiconductors, homebuilders, and Dow are struggling. Long-term indicators (TTM Squeeze, Special K) suggest caution.
Areas to Watch: Low volume (except Friday spike), rising jobless claims, stagnant risk ratios, and weak sector bellwethers (e.g., semis, transports). Gold-to-SPY declining and DAX strength are notable.
Key Question: Will the S&P 500 resume trending or stay sideways? Emotional reactions to tariff news and mixed technicals suggest consolidation with short-term fatigue risks.
Market Update Summary (May 27–30, 2025)
The S&P 500 rose, up 1.9%, led by tariff deferral optimism and Nvidia earnings, but gains faded into sideways action. Yields eased to 4.42%, aiding stocks. Real estate, financials, and tech are outperforming; energy and materials are lagging. Sentiment is mixed but improving, though overbought conditions and weakening weekly trends (ADX) suggest caution. FOMC minutes were neutral, but global debt ($324T) and downward Q2 earnings revisions are adding pressure. Gold fell 2%, oil stayed in the low $60s, and copper dropped 3.21%, hinting at an economic slowdown.
Outlook for June 2–6, 2025
June historically favors gains (58% chance, 0.2% average return), with strength early in the month. Jerome Powell’s speech and Friday’s employment report may spark volatility. The markets are consolidating, with growth outperforming but small caps and transports weak. Tariff uncertainty could drive gaps. Risks include a potential drop below moving averages and rising recession signals. Investors should monitor economic data and policy shifts for trend changes.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!