Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday May 27, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Friday, May 23, 2025. Outlook for Tuesday May 27, 2025
Market Overview:
Market Reaction to Tariff News: Futures dropped significantly before the market opened due to an announcement of increased tariffs targeting Apple (25% if iPhones are made outside the U.S.) and a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, as trade talks stalled. This led to a lower market open.
Intraday Action: The market hit a low near the open, finding support at the 100-day simple moving average, and clawed back to close above 5,800, showing some resilience.
Performance: The SPX ended down 0.67%, better than feared, with below-average volume. Support held, but weakness is developing as the market works off an overbought condition.
Key Market Movements:
Tariff Impact: President Trump’s posts about tariffs caused a flight to safety, with investors moving to bonds, pushing bond prices up and interest rates down but only slightly lower by the close (4.51% from 4.55%). The 30-year bond briefly dropped below 5% but closed above.
White House Response: Clarified tariffs as a negotiating tactic, not yet implemented, aiming to calm the markets.
Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Comments: Suggested rising yields reflect stronger growth expectations, not just negative sentiment, though his role requires a positive spin.
Sectors Impacted: Mega-cap growth and tech (e.g., Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft) were hit hard, while defensive sectors (utilities, staples, energy, real estate) held up better.
Technical Indicators:
Short-Term Indicators: Mixed signals with stochastics declining and slope negative but still extreme positive. The StochRSI turned extreme negative, indicating short-term bearishness. The VIX rose above 22, reflecting increased fear.
Intermediate-Term Indicators: Momentum oscillators and TTM Squeeze show early weakness. The bullish percent index for NASDAQ 100 is steady and still extreme positive.
Long-Term Indicators: Still positive, with the market above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, though trending lower. The ADX indicates no clear trend (below 20).
Economic Data and Sentiment:
New Home Sales: Up 10.9% month-over-month (743,000 annualized), positive for real estate.
Sentiment: AAII survey shows individual investors turning slightly positive, contrasting with short-term market negativity. Equity put/call ratios are rising, indicating hedging and caution.
Dollar: The dollar weakened despite protectionist tariffs.
Market Outlook for Tuesday, May 27, 2025:
Holiday Weekend: Markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day, introducing uncertainty as geopolitical or unexpected events could impact sentiment.
Economic Calendar: Tuesday brings durable goods, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and consumer confidence. Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes and Thursday’s second GDP reading (previously negative) will be key. Friday’s core PCE and consumer sentiment could move the markets.
Seasonality: Historical data suggests a positive day for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ on May 27, though post-election years show some negative days later in the week.
Key Observations:
The market is digesting tariff news, with short-term weakness but longer-term support holding. Defensive sectors are outperforming, and growth stocks are under pressure.
Indicators suggest caution but not a full bearish shift. The market remains above key moving averages, but overbought conditions are unwinding.
Geopolitical risks and upcoming economic data could sway sentiment. Fed Chair Powell’s Sunday speech may influence the futures.
Conclusion:
The market is navigating tariff-induced uncertainty, with short-term negativity but a broader positive backdrop. Investors should monitor support levels (e.g., 200-day moving average) and upcoming data for signs of a trend shift.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!