The Wire - May 12, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z May 12, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POTENTIAL SCHOOL SHOOTING THWARTED IN MAINE BY VIGILANT STUDENT. INDIA/PAKISTAN CONFLICT REMAINS TENSE FOLLOWING MULTIPLE CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

India/Pakistan: Almost immediately following Saturday's ceasefire, the conflict remained kinetic following what may have been a brief mutiny incident in the Pakistani Armed Forces. Though nothing remains confirmed (and everything is speculative), a small handful of Pakistani artillery units appear to have not recognized Pakistan's ceasefire order, and kept firing through the ceasefire that had been brokered. This led to India accusing Pakistan of violating the ceasefire and retaliating in kind. Several more drone incursions were reported originating from Pakistan the following day, and throughout Saturday afternoon and Sunday limited fighting has continued along the Line-of-Control (LoC). By Monday morning, most of the fighting has simmered down.

AC: It would be a stretch to say that the ceasefire is "holding" however the fighting has reduced in intensity as both nations have made increased efforts to regain control of their own forces along the LoC. This may flare back up by tomorrow, but for now both nations have gotten their licks in, and both are probably looking for a face-saving exit plan from this conflict.

United Kingdom: This morning widespread issues were reported throughout the Underground subway system in London. Four subway routes were shut down due to a loss of power along the lines, which struck immediately before rush hour.

North Africa: Heavy clashes were reported overnight in Libya as a prominent militia leader was killed. Abdel-ghani al-Kikli, the infamous warlord leading the Stabilization Support Authority (SSA), was assassinated in Tripoli last night, leading to his militia group causing unrest throughout the city.

AC: While this may seem like a brutal (but standard) part of life in Libya, this may have an affect on the immigration situation over the next few months. Al-Kikli (also known locally as 'Ghaniwa') became famous (or rather, infamous) for his group's expansion in multiple sectors throughout the nation. Whether it's crude oil or arms trafficking, the SSA is involved in some manner throughout Libya. In the global West, the only reason his name is known is largely for one reason...his involvement in the exploitation, torture, and abuse of sub-Saharan migrants looking to use Libya as a jumping off point for migration to Europe. In short, though al-Kikli was a brutal warlord accused of a plethora of human rights abuses, he (and his group) were one of the only entities that was a hinderance to migration operations. Now that al-Kikli's brutal hand is no longer a factor for migrants, this could lead to increased unrest throughout the region, in addition to all of the other sectors that will be affected by this loss. Power vacuums in Libya have a way of affecting the global west in one way or another, so keeping an eye on this situation would be worthwhile.

 -HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - The White House has announced a series of policy changes related to the trade war between the United States and China. A series of trade deals has been reached, and the United States has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced their tariffs on the US from 125% to 10%. This deal will go into effect immediately, and last for 90 days while other economic talks continue.

Maine: A potential mass shooter was arrested before an attack in Biddeford on Friday. Local school officials at Biddeford High School have stated that a man was arrested after being observed by a student to be loading a rifle in the parking lot. Local authorities have identified the potential attacker as 21-year-old Mohammed Hussein Kamaludeen, who was arrested for possession of a firearm near a school.

AC: The carefully observant student who spotted this man very likely prevented a mass shooting. Due to the potential assailant's name, this story will very likely not receive much media attention, but this incident highlights both the growing risk of terrorism and also how important it is to be aware of malign actors.

Maryland: On Saturday, a possible vehicle ramming attack was conducted in Laurel, at the Main Street Festival. Local authorities state that Kai Deberry-Bostick drove up to the street that was closed for the festival, got out of her vehicle, ripped down the police tape, and proceeded to drive through the festival. Deberry-Bostick struck one police officer with her vehicle during the incident, and pushed many people off of the road as she transited through the tented areas for the festival.

AC: At the moment it appears as though this incident was not the result of a terror attack, but rather the result of a person who's narcissism is a risk to public safety. The body camera footage of the incident clearly shows that local police did take efforts to block the street, however the assailant was able to squeeze her vehicle around the police cruiser blocking the road. The assailant was immediately confronted by a police officer, but was allowed by the officer to tear down the police tape and drive directly into the crowd at the festival. Considering this was in Maryland, it's very likely that the officer did not want to shoot the assailant for social/cultural reasons, even though Deberry-Bostick presented a clear and present danger to the public, and openly conveyed that she intended to plow her vehicle into the crowd. These social concerns highlight the unique threat profiles that are very common in American society at present...it's a complex problem that has no easy solution.

Tennessee: A truck driver has been arrested on multiple counts of reckless homicide following a fatal crash on I-75 on Sunday. Joseph Antoinier was arrested after failing to adjust to traffic conditions, which resulted in him driving his semi truck into slowed traffic, causing a pileup. This incident resulted in 2x fatalities, with 2x others remaining in intensive care due to their injuries.

AC: This incident was exceptionally tragic due to the circumstances of the fatalities. 6x passenger vehicles were involved in this accident, two of which immediately caught fire with children inside. Many bystanders received burns during improvised rescue operations of those trapped inside the affected vehicles.

New Jersey: Civil unrest broke out at the federal Delaney Detention Center over the weekend, as ICE personnel attempted to process illegal immigrants for deportation. Multiple riots and attempts to breach the perimeter have been reported at this facility over the past few days, which has included the assault of security personnel by violent rioters. Members of Congress have also been involved in the fray, with recently-released body cam footage confirming beyond all doubt that Rep. LaMonica McIver physically assaulted an ICE agent in order to illegally gain entry to this facility. During the riot, Rep. Rob Menendez and Mayor Ras Baraka also physically breached the perimeter of this facility.

Ohio: This afternoon a small Black Panther armed show-of-force demonstration was held at the Hamilton County Courthouse in support of Rodney Hinton, the individual who deliberately murdered a random police officer after being shown the body cam footage that justified the police shooting of his son last week. Several armed individuals took part in this power-projection operation, with their leader openly professing his support for Hinton's actions.

USA: The first South African refugees granted asylum in the United States have arrived, to much opposition from refugee groups. The national Episcopal Church, a major player in the refugee space, has halted their U.S. Refugee Admissions Program specifically due to South Africans being classified as refugees. In a letter posted to their website, the Church states that they have funded, supported, and organized efforts to promote the immigration of over 110,000 immigrants into the United States...but that the Church will not support the immigration of 49x Afrikaners into the United States.

AC: While this is a rather interesting case (for many reasons) perhaps the most surprising aspect of it involves the utter contempt expressed for these refugees...by refugee groups. It would have been an easy win among immigration-centric organizations, but instead a national-level Protestant Church has instead chosen to openly admit that they are not supportive of this specific immigration situation explicitly due to the race of the refugees. Some may be surprised that this statement is made so openly, however that's what the Church said in their letter, so any questions and concerns should be directed toward the Church itself.

Nevertheless, in a larger sense this will be the cause of much debate over the next few weeks as rather bold statements become impossible to ignore. A very large pro-immigration group admitting over a hundred thousand immigrants from all over the world...but throwing a fit over 49x South Africans fleeing their nation...this is very illuminating as to what the original goals of the program actually are.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Viewing the India/Pakistan conflict through a more west-centric lens is unlikely to be the best course of action as this perspective will result in lots of expectations that are not common in this part of the world. Generally speaking, for a "ceasefire" to actually be called such, the "fire" must "cease". However, in the Third World, an "immediate ceasefire" does not often translate to an immediate ceasefire. Most military units in this part of the world operate quite unilaterally; as risky as this is to international security, this is often the cultural norm. What's probably quite likely is that a blend of ego, caste, and communications breakdown was the reasoning behind the multiple ceasefire violations reported on both sides since it went into effect.

More strategically, this recent spat highlights just how dicey international relations have become. Many may wonder as to why one day the United States' official stance on the conflict was that it was "none of our business" (according to VP Vance), but the very next day the United States announced the brokering of a ceasefire. While this could be for any number of reasons, it could also be due to India striking a nuclear weapon storage depot in Pakistan. Indian Air Marshal Awadhesh Kumar Bharti (the mastermind of this military campaign) flat-out denied that India had conducted any strike on the Kirana Hills nuclear weapons storage facility...but while he was saying these words, he was smirking, leading many to believe the exact opposite of what he said and that India really did strike this strategic storage site in Pakistan. President Trump said as much during a press conference, in which he causally remarked that the United States stopped a nuclear war between these two nations. While this could simply be President Trump bragging (as he is prone to do quite often) he's probably telling the truth this time in the most literal sense.

Either way, the craters at the site are real enough, and did not spring up out of thin air. Someone struck this storage depot, and India was almost certainly the one that did it. The potential for Pakistan to conduce a false-flag attack on themselves is certainly possible, however most military strategists consider Pakistan's military to be rather unbalanced in war against India (as in India's military is vastly more capable than Pakistan's). Thus, Pakistan would need all of the weaponry they could get their hands on, and any false-flag attack that Pakistan might decide on would probably take place at some other location, and not anything they actually would need to win a war. It's always a balance of what one personally believes is most likely (which is usually based on very incomplete information), but it would be a classically-Indian response to strike the entrance tunnel to a nuke storage site simply because Pakistan embarrassed them by shooting down one of their newest and most capable fighter aircraft (the combat loss of the Rafale at the beginning of this conflict).

Upon learning of the strikes at increasingly-serious locations, and the potential for nuclear weapons to become involved, the United States probably intervened rather quickly to put this conflict to bed as best they could, before the world figured out the palpable irony of two third-world powers (one of which is a staunch US "ally") involving nuclear weapons in a very low-profile border squabble. For the western world, the military use of nuclear weapons is a last-resort that is so rarely considered one might argue that it won't ever happen...but between India and Pakistan, the use of nuclear weapons is often the first choice among both parties, with only a small conventional war taking place to justify their use to the world. The nature of these nations being on full display to the world is rather interesting in the context of the United States simultaneously also being involved in non-proliferation efforts elsewhere...while their own ally (on one side) and trade partner (on the other side) fight dirty on the subcontinent.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//