The Wire - May 7, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z May 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INDIA/PAKISTAN SPAT REMAINS SHORT OF FULL-BLOWN WAR, SITUATION TENOUS REGARDLESS. USS TRUMAN LOSES ANOTHER AIRCRAFT OVERBOARD. STRATEGIC BUILDUP AT DIEGO GARCIA CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

India/Pakistan: Though an all-out war has not yet begun, tensions remain high following yesterday's missile strikes. Examination of various debris fields does confirm that several Indian aircraft were shot down, including what looks to be the first combat loss of a Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft. However the total number of platforms lost overnight remains unclear.

AC: For the moment, Pakistan has not conducted their counterattack yet, all of last-night's activities were knee-jerk defensive moves and not a deliberately planned counteroffensive.

Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday President Trump announced a cessation of hostilities against the Houthi government due to the Houthis ceasing their targeting of commercial shipping. A few hours after this announcement, a Houthi spokesman stated that this is not true, and that the war is still on as before.

In the Red Sea, the USS HARRY S TRUMAN suffered another aviation mishap, which involved the loss of another F/A-18 due to a failure of arresting gear during flight operations. Due to this failure, the pilot and weapons officer both ejected from the aircraft as it fell off of the flight deck.

AC: Despite the PR disaster of losing two aircraft to mishaps within 7 days, these types of events happen fairly often. Arresting cables snap all the time, and sometimes there isn't enough airspeed left to successfully abort the landing and take off again. Aviation operations onboard an aircraft carrier are a risky business, and the increase in mishaps is often directly related to an increase in optempo. Regardless, the loss of a total of three aircraft, which are bombing a country that does not have any air force whatsoever, is not entirely a good look.

Indian Ocean: The strategic buildup of bomber aircraft continues as 2x B-52 Stratofortress aircraft have forward deployed to Diego Garcia to supplement the 6x B2 Spirit stealth bombers already on the island. Two more B-52's have been observed by plane watchers heading toward the island as well, which would bring the total of B-52's to 4x.

AC: The continual forward deployment of strategic resources to this island continues to present indications and warnings of a major military campaign. Additionally, this deployment highlights discrepancies with the rhetoric involving war with Iran.

Russia: This afternoon Moscow's airspace was closed due to a mass Ukrainian drone attack. This was the first much anticipated drone attack that was expected to take place during Russia's celebration of Victory Day (and the festivities and parades taking place around May 9th). Russia's MoD states that 524x Ukrainian drones have been shot down over the past 24 hours.

AC: These numbers obviously can't be independently confirmed, but it sounds about right. Ukraine, having shown obviously no interest in participating in a ceasefire, is heavily invested in doubling down to make a show during Victory Day events and parades. This is not only because a lot of functional military hardware is already staged in Moscow, but also because a lot of foreign dignitaries are visiting. China's Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow this morning, and his presence alone raises the stakes of the war on both sides. Over the next 24-48 hours, Russia will be very concerned with defending the airspace of her capital city...and Ukraine will be very motivated to target it.

 -HomeFront-

U.S.A. - Around the nation the REAL ID Act went into effect today. This means that only certain types of identification documents will be accepted by TSA for travel by air.

AC: If you are planning any aviation travel this week, it might be a good idea to get in the TSA line early and expect delays (or in many cases, minor fistfights) from travelers who are unaware of the ID requirements to fly.

South Carolina: A murder suspect has been arrested following a crime spree (including a high-profile murder) over the weekend. Logan Federico was murdered in Columbia in what appears to be a home invasion. Authorities state that Alexander Dickey was burglarizing each home along Cyprus Street, murdering the victim when he encountered her inside one of the residences.

Houston: A man armed with a knife was shot and killed by police in the parking lot of the Kelsey Seybold Clinic on Cyprus Creek Parkway. No solid details have been released regarding this incident, however claims have been made by local media that the incident arose after the man was found living in his vehicle in the parking lot. After police approached the man, he refused to leave, and eventually pulled a knife that resulted in the police shooting.

Alabama: One person has been arrested following a fatal vehicle accident involving a semi truck in Thomasville. Yesterday morning, Andrii Dmyterko (an immigrant in the United States on a work visa) was arrested for causing a pileup after he failed to notice vehicles stopped at a traffic signal. The resulting crash killed two people and injured four others.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Violent crime season is indeed in full swing already this year, with multiple horrific crimes taking place around the nation over the past few days. It's too soon to tell if the baseline of murders and attacks is higher than usual this year, however it's a good idea to remain aware of these things anyway.

In Yemen, clearly someone somewhere is lying. At this point, it's almost equally possible that either side in this conflict seeks to save face. The United States military, the best professional fighting force by a wide margin, does not maintain total air superiority in the skies over Yemen. The loss of over twenty drones over the past year or so to a rag-tag ethnic group in the desert is embarrassing. On the other hand, bombing every military target that remains static for a few hours has to have some serious impact on the Houthi's ability to wage war. As such, the Houthis could be lying, in which case they did accept some sort of backdoor peace agreement and are trying to save face regarding their capitulation. Or the United States is lying, and is looking for an egress method from this bombing campaign that has become a very costly war. Costly if not from a budgetary means, but because China is paying attention to how the war is being waged in Yemen. And so far, the Houthis have proven that a small, haphazardly-organized ethnic group, which doesn't have hardly any advanced technology, can still contest the airspace over their part of the world and prevent the US Air Force from maintaining air superiority. In short, if the Houthis can give the US military a run for their money (even if the Houthis eventually do lose most engagements), this is important combat data for other American military aspirations around the globe. Either way, time will tell. The 6x B2 Spirit stealth bombers and their tankers are still forward deployed to Diego Garcia and have been supplemented by what is likely to be a total of 4x B-52s as well. Tiktokers still have smartphones in Yemen, so if the bombings continue unabated we can more accurately assess who's telling the truth.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//