The Wire - May 6, 2025 - Priority

//The Wire//2300Z May 6, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: INDIA CONDUCTS MISSILE STRIKES IN PAKISTAN.//

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-International Events-

India: This afternoon India carried out multiple missile strikes in eastern Pakistan. India announced the launch and subsequent completion of "Operation Sindoor", which involved 9x missile strikes at varying sites throughout eastern Pakistan. Most of these strike locations are comparatively remote sites right along the border.

Pakistan: Officials have claimed to have shot down at total of 5x Indian military aircraft (including two fighters and one helicopter), though this remains unconfirmed at this time. Shortly after the airstrikes, Pakistan announced their counterattack had begun. Pakistani officials/sources claimed that around a dozen sites were struck by Pakistani aircraft in Kashmir. Again, this remains largely unconfirmed.

Artillery units in the border regions of both nations have begun various bombardment efforts, with locals reporting significant explosions throughout the region, though without any hard evidence to indicate how successful these cross border fires are.

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Analyst Comments: Reports are numerous, but many are contradictory or otherwise unreliable. Right now (and as with any similar crisis) the word "confirmed" is being thrown around without much consideration for what confirmation of an event actually means. At least 90% of the content on social media right now is fake and/or old footage of conflicts not even in India or Pakistan, so the manipulation of the information space is exceptionally high at the moment.

In about an hour the sun will be up, and a more reliable Battle Damage Assessment can be conducted. Right now it's still dark throughout the region, so daylight will provide much more evidence of whatever aircraft were shot down, if any. It is possible that what appeared to be an aircraft shootdown incident to locals on the ground, was actually Pakistan shooting down unmanned reconnaissance drones. These are exceptionally easy to shoot down, and at night would look very similar to untrained civilians who didn't get close to the various debris fields.

India claims to have only struck "terrorist" camps, and not specifically Pakistani military sites. If true, this is probably to avoid too much escalation since India very well knows that Pakistan will be forced to respond in kind, even if it's just to save face. Of note, Pakistani sources refute this claim and state that Pakistani military sites were hit, though which ones remains unclear at the moment. It is a bit of a stretch, but it's possible that an old outpost at the Muzaffarabad Airport was hit, which could mean that both sides are partially correct. Old, defunct military outposts are frequently occupied by everyone from local street vendors to insurgent groups in this part of the world, so this will probably add to the confusion as to what targets India actually struck.

Considering that India immediately announced their entire plan seconds after the strikes hit, India probably isn't looking for the global thermonuclear war that many people are expecting. Pakistan is not looking for such a conflict either, and though they will have to retaliate in kind, how this retaliation manifests will be an indication of how concerned to be. If India's actions were a one-and-done strike, and Pakistan responds with a similar one-and-done strike, tensions may ease a bit. If not, this may become a rather concerning and serious event.

More strategically however, the overall concerns remain rather important in the context of two nuclear powers engaging each other in a land war in Asia. The concern is not necessarily that one nation will pull the pin and conduct a nuclear first strike...the main concern is that one of these parties may accidentally stumble into such. Either way, it's a dangerous game that will remain concerning as the world watches the events of the next few days.

This will be exceptionally important to remember in the global West, particularly in nations which have significant Indian and Pakistani populations...over the next few days large-scale riots are on the menu as third-world issues get settled in the streets wherever there is a large diaspora willing to do so.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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