S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday May 1, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Wednesday, April 30, 2025, and Outlook for Thursday, May 1, 2025
Wednesday Recap:
Market Performance: The market opened with a significant gap down due to a negative GDP report (-0.3% vs. expected +0.4%) for Q1 2025, raising stagflation concerns as inflation (deflator) rose to 3.7% (vs. 3.1% expected). Despite this, the S&P 500 rebounded, closing up 0.15% after hitting a low of -2.3%. The day ended above the daily pivot (5546) and unchanged level, with a late surge.
Key Levels: Gapped below S2 (5480), hit an intraday low at 5430, rebounded above S2, reached S1 (5520), and closed above the daily pivot. April ended down 0.76%, with high volatility.
Economic Data:
GDP: Negative growth (-0.3%) and high inflation (3.7%) sparked stagflation fears.
ADP Employment: Weak at +62,000 (vs. 128,000 expected).
Personal Income/Spending: Slightly positive, up 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, with PCE price index stable (2.3% annualized, down from 2.7%).
Pending Home Sales: Strong at +6.1% (vs. -0.2% expected).
Chicago PMI: Contracted at 44.6 (vs. 46 expected).
Market Indicators:
Volume: Above average, reflecting reaction to economic data.
VIX: Closed at 24.7, above 20 but trending down.
Moving Averages: Short-term positive (above 20-period), but negative intermediate (below 50-period) and long-term (below 200-period). The 50-period exponential moving average acting as resistance.
Sentiment: Negative (35), with some improvement in short-term momentum (79% of S&P stocks above 20-period MA). Indicators such as the Stochastics, StochRSI and CMB composite showing extreme positive readings.
Trends: ADX indicated a weakening downtrend, with mixed-to-positive momentum.
Sectors: Healthcare and staples led, tech was mixed, discretionary and energy lagged.
Earnings: Positive reaction after hours to reports (e.g., Microsoft, Meta) boosting overnight futures by about 1%.
Thursday Outlook:
Expected Market Reaction: Futures suggest a potential open above the 50-period exponential moving average, but sustaining gains is uncertain. Key levels to watch: 5550 (recent range high) and 5575 (weekly pivot).
Economic Data:
Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing, and Construction Spending are due, with potential market impact.
Employment data on Friday will be critical.
Seasonality: May historically weaker (up 61% of the time, 1.6% average return). May 1st is positive for the S&P and NASDAQ.
Global Factors: Trade policies, geopolitical tensions (Russia, Ukraine, Israel, etc.), and White House announcements could drive volatility.
Technical Focus:
Breaking above the 50-period simple moving average and 5575 (weekly chart) would signal strength.
Warning signs include negative long-term trends in growth-to-value and discretionary-to-staples ratios, and a negative Swenlin Trading Oscillator.
Conclusion:
The market showed resilience despite negative GDP and stagflation concerns, closing positive with above-average volume. Short-term trends are positive, but intermediate and long-term remain negative, with overhead resistance at the 50-period moving averages. Thursday’s data and earnings will be pivotal, with potential for continued volatility amid global and policy uncertainties.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iydjrbSM8Fr6GwwpGaYozSNqCSZzEjs6/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!