S&P 500 Weekly Update for April 28 May 2, 2025

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Summary of the Weekly Update for April 28-May 2, 2025
Market Performance (April 21–25):
The market saw a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 up 4.59%, moving from 5,100 to above 5,500.
NASDAQ gained 6.7%, and the Dow rose 2.5%. All major indexes showed improvement.
Despite the bounce, the market remains in a downtrend, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating short-term improvement but intermediate and long-term negativity.
Weekly charts show technical damage but signs of improvement, particularly in daily charts.
Key Observations:
The market exited correction territory (though still slightly above a 10% decline from February highs) and is up 10.9% from the April 8 low of 4,982.
Volume was below average, but weekly charts indicated above-average activity.
Growth sectors led the rally: Tech (+7.9%), Discretionary (+7.4%), and Communication (+6.4%). Mega-cap growth ETFs, like Vanguard’s, rose 7.4%.
Defensive sectors (e.g., Staples, Real Estate, Utilities) underperformed, a positive sign for growth-driven markets.
Sentiment improved but remains negative (e.g., sentiment at 35, up from below 25). The VIX dropped but is still above 20, signaling volatility.
Economic and Geopolitical Factors:
Upcoming week (April 28–May 2) brings heavy economic data: GDP, core PCE, and employment reports, alongside earnings season.
Tariffs and trade war concerns (U.S.-China) persist, though markets reacted to a lack of negative news and potential oversold conditions.
Trump’s comments on firing Fed Chair Powell and tariff negotiations caused volatility, but he later clarified no intent to fire Powell or escalate with China.
Interest rates eased (10-year yield at 4.27% from 4.33%), stabilizing bond markets.
Technical Indicators:
A rare bullish signal, the Zweig NYSE Breadth Thrust, occurred, with a strong historical track record for gains (67.9% up after one month, 96% after one year).
Daily charts show positive shifts in primary indicators (except ADX), but weekly charts remain negative.
The market is at the top of a trading range, facing overhead resistance from moving averages.
Long-term momentum is negative, with a potential “death cross” looming on weekly charts (50-week MA crossing below 200-week MA).
Sector and Asset Insights:
Gold outperformed other assets (stocks, bonds, cash), but a pullback is possible after hitting an all-time high.
Commodities (e.g., copper) remain in a long-term uptrend; oil is stable but the worst-performing asset year-to-date.
Bonds improved slightly, with a golden cross suggesting outperformance over stocks long-term.
The dollar weakened across all time frames.
Looking Ahead (April 28–May 2):
Expect market volatility due to economic reports, earnings, and tariff news.
Growth sectors need to sustain leadership for a bullish trend to solidify.
The market remains vulnerable to external factors (geopolitics, tariffs) despite technical improvements.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/17ppi_8W11r3_P_cwYCViVNEFgk6PjSdD/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!