Deep Dive Update for Monday April 28, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com/

The Deep Dive Update for Monday April 28, 2025 is a weekly update that analyzes various charts related to the S&P 500 and other market indicators to gain insights into market trends. This update covers charts not frequently discussed in other updates, focusing on volatility, correlations, and technical indicators.
Key points include:
1. VIX Analysis: The VIX (volatility index) 50 EMA is currently below 20 but rising, indicating market pressure. A move above 20 could signal increased hedging and a defensive market. The VIX’s RSI (9-period) is slightly below the midpoint, reflecting recent stock gains but no quick significant momentum shift.
2. VIX Correlations and Variations: The VIX-S&P 500 correlation is low, offering little insight. The VVIX (volatility of VIX) suggests the VIX is outperforming, aligning with recent S&P 500 declines. The skew index and Landry volatility measure show no notable signals, as they remain below critical thresholds.
3. Volatility Comparisons: Bonds (via the MOVE index) are outperforming stocks in 2025, with the bond-stock volatility ratio rising, indicating a defensive market. Large-cap growth remains negative, with a "death cross" (50-period MA below 200-period MA), and small caps (Russell 2000) underperforming large caps (Russell 1000).
4. Market Performance: The S&P 500 is up 58.11% from its October 2022 low and 34.64% from its October 2023 low. A recent bounce has improved the technical alerts, with fewer negative signals by week’s end. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQs) leads major indexes with a score of 42.2 (still weak), followed by the S&P 500 (33.8).
5. Technical Indicators: Short-term trends are improving (e.g., S&P 500 above 20-period MA), but intermediate and long-term trends remain negative. Bollinger Bands and other oscillators show slight improvement but no strong bullish signals. The market is 3.8% below its 200-day MA.
6. Bonds and Yields: Bond volatility is high, but inflation fears are subdued, as shown by declining TIPS ratios and stable yield curves. The 10-year to 2-year yield curve is normal but steepening, while the 10-year to 3-month curve is slightly inverted, suggesting mixed recession signals.
7. Sector and Global Insights: The Financials and banks are in downtrends but recovering slightly. European stocks (DAX) show a current neutral correlation with the S&P 500. Growth (QQQs) and value (Dow) correlations remain typical, with no significant divergences.
8. Market Outlook: The market is rebounding but remains below key moving averages and resistance levels. Small and mid-cap stocks show extreme negative readings but are witnessing slight improvements. Analysis should include monitoring for sustained positive signals or a potential reversal, with no strong evidence of an imminent recession yet.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zH3tRPOHyCrpfBmyX5woqxa7iVTmJEJI/view?usp=sharing

My Exclusive Free Workshop: The Four P's of Building a Successful Investing Program → https://spxinvesting.mailchimpsites.com

Facebook Private Group:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/667271964721864

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!