Brian Moynihan Concerns About Economic Growth

"So if we look at what we’re seeing in our data — and one of the unique things we have is visibility into what consumers are actually doing — we can see it. So if we think about April, year-to-date, we’re seeing about a 5% movement of money in the economy; $1.4 trillion has moved through those accounts in the economy, which is 5% more than what moved during that four-month period last year. Basically, it has held steady and is a little faster in the fourth quarter. So the consumer is still spending. Now, they tell us they're worried, they tell us they're concerned about things.

So if you go to small businesses, they have good credit quality, they’re making money, but again, they’re concerned about what happens next. And if you look at large companies, it’s the same thing. So I think the takeaway would be: the economy is in good shape, but our economists have lowered their growth assumptions by about 1% for this year, 1.25%, and around 1% lower for next year — and basically have forecasted growth of about half a percent to 1%, which is very different from what they had, you know, two or three months ago.

And that’s largely due to the uncertainty around how the tariffs will be resolved. If they’re resolved quickly, I think the U.S. economy will be fine. If it takes a year, that could be a little more interesting."