Michael Beckley: China is Dangerously Weak

AEI's Michael Beckley joins the show to discuss China's peaking power, and why that actually makes them more dangerous.

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Text and links to sources available here: https://reason.com/podcast/2025/04/17/michael-beckley-china-is-dangerously-weak

What if the new Cold War with China turns hot? Just asking questions.

China's rise, decline, or potential for conflict is often clouded by propaganda and oversimplification. This episode of Just Asking Questions examines China's real economic, military, and geopolitical trajectory—focusing on Taiwan tensions, trade wars, and demographic challenges.

Joining us is Michael Beckley, a Tufts University political science professor and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. His research argues that China's peaking power makes it a unique threat, blending insights on its economy, military, and ambitions.

Chapters
00:00 Coming up: China's economic challenges and rising aggression
01:13 What if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow?
05:17 Military capabilities and invasion scenarios for Taiwan
10:28 America's interests and the strategic importance of Taiwan
15:13 The Trump administration's trade war with China
20:47 Economic rivalry and the new Cold War
26:03 China's military modernization and hypersonic threats
31:10 Assessing China's actual military strength
36:14 Lessons from Hong Kong and implications for Taiwan
41:23 Demographic decline and economic stagnation
46:30 One-child policy and irreversible population trends
51:39 Xi Jinping's vision and the roots of Chinese authoritarianism
57:05 The nature of China's political and economic system
01:02:15 Rising assertiveness and wolf warrior diplomacy
01:07:28 Avoiding war and imagining a path to peace
01:13:09 Strategic missteps and the importance of deterrence
01:16:18 Appreciating global order and what's at stake