S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday April 24, 2025

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Market Summary covering Wednesday, April 23, 2025
Market Performance: The market opened strong with a significant gap higher above R2 at 5370, reaching resistance at R3 (5472). However, it sold off in the afternoon, closing just above R2, up 1.67%. Volume increased but remains below average, indicating a lack of strong conviction.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators (e.g., Stochastics, StochRSI, Williams %R) are overbought due to two strong up days but short, intermediate and long-term trends remain negative.
Oscillators such as the MACD and slope oscillator are showing improvement but are still in extreme negative territory.
The VIX is at 28.45, above 20, indicating persistent volatility, though trending downward.
Economic Factors:
Interest rates were unchanged at 4.39% (10-year yield). The dollar saw a slight bounce but remains under 100.
Economic reports: MBA Mortgage Applications -12.7%, global manufacturing slightly expanded (50.7%), services weakened but are still above 50 (51.4%), and new home sales beat expectations at 724,000.
Market Sentiment:
Political rhetoric around trade deals and Fed Chair Powell calmed the markets, but no substantial progress has been made.
Net bullish sentiment remains low, potentially acting as a contrarian indicator for future gains.
Defensive sectors (e.g., staples, healthcare) underperformed, while growth sectors led gains but closed off highs.
Sector Performance:
Tech, discretionary, and communication sectors led, with growth outperforming value (up 2.37% vs. 0.9%).
Small and mid-caps improved but closed near lows, reflecting weak follow-through.
Key stocks (e.g., Apple, Amazon, NVIDIA) were up but remain in downtrends; Netflix hit an all-time high.
Outlook for Thursday, April 24, 2025:
Overall Trend: Remains negative across short, intermediate, and long terms, though short-term indicators are showing some improvement.
Key Factors:
Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims, durable goods, and existing home sales.
Positive seasonality for April 24 and the post-options expiration week (up 64% of the time) could support gains.
Tariff news continues to drive uncertainty, potentially overriding seasonality.
Technical Outlook:
Bullish percent indexes (S&P, NYSE, NASDAQ 100) crossing above 50 suggest some buying, but growth vs. value ratios and moving average studies remain weak.
A potential death cross in the discretionary-to-staples ratio looms, signaling defensive market posture.
Watch for resistance at the 20-period moving average and whether the market can sustain upward momentum.
Conclusion: While short-term improvements and positive seasonality offer some hope, the SPX remains in a negative trend with high volatility and tariff-related uncertainty. Defensive sectors and select growth stocks show pockets of strength, but broader follow-through is needed to shift the outlook.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XtVm9can7tDNhnNLY--4_iN0c6P8q84j/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!