S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday April 23, 2025

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Market Summary for Tuesday, April 22, 2025, and Outlook for Wednesday, April 23, 2025
Tuesday Recap:
The market rebounded significantly after a sharp decline on Monday, recovering all losses and gaining further, up 2.51% on below-average volume.
Prices opened with a gap higher, surpassed resistance levels R1 (5227) and R2 (5296), briefly crossed 5,300, but closed slightly below R2 after declining to find support at 5,250.
Despite the rally, the market remains in a defensive posture with a negative outlook in short, intermediate, and long terms.
Key factors influencing the market include the "Trump Tariff Tantrums," with Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on de-escalating China tariffs noted, though the market was already rising prior.
The VIX remains above 30, indicating high volatility. Momentum and oscillator indicators (e.g., MACD, rate of change) are mixed, struggling to confirm a clear direction due to rapid swings.
Interest rates slightly declined (10-year yield at 4.39% from 4.41%).
Sector performance showed tech attracting inflows despite its downtrend, while financials, discretionary, communication, and tech outperformed staples, though this may not persist.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators (e.g., StochRSI, Williams %R) are mixed due to volatility, with some showing improvement but no clear trend reversal.
Intermediate-term indicators (e.g., TTM squeeze, PMO) remain extremely negative, with the market far below key moving averages (20, 50, 150 periods).
Long-term indicators also signal a downtrend, with the 200-day moving average still negative but slightly less extreme.
The S&P McClellan oscillator turned positive, but other momentum indicators such as the Swenlin Trading Oscillator remain negative.
Growth-to-value ratios continue to underperform, with value (defensive) slightly outperforming growth, reflecting caution.
Economic and Sentiment Context:
No major economic reports were released on Tuesday. The Simple Advisor overbought/oversold composite rose from 7.71 to 23.51, still negative but hinting at potential for a bounce.
The dollar strengthened slightly after recent weakness, contrary to expectations given tariff news. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries (32-33%) pose a vulnerability if sold off.
Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are rising, with unemployment concerns noted. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), released on Monday, show a potential recession risk if they fall below the critical threshold again.
Earnings estimates are declining as analysts revise projections downward, a typical pattern but signaling caution since late 2024.
Wednesday Outlook:
Futures were up 1.5% overnight, with positive momentum in Japan potentially carrying into Europe and the U.S.
Key reports to watch include MBA mortgage applications, global manufacturing and services PMIs (above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction), and new home sales.
Tariff developments remain a primary focus, driving market sentiment.
Seasonality favors an up day (64% chance based on historical data since 1980), with positive trends for the Dow and S&P, and neutral-to-positive for the NASDAQ.
The 5,300 level is a critical pivot; breaking above could signal bullishness, while falling below may reinforce bearish trends.
Despite the rally, the market remains in a downtrend with mixed momentum. A sustained positive day could shift sentiment slightly, but the backdrop remains negative without consistent follow-through.
Conclusion:
The market is volatile, driven by tariff news and mixed technical signals, with no clear trend reversal. Investors remain cautious, reflected in low volume and a defensive stance. While short-term oversold conditions may drive bounces, the negative short, intermediate, and long-term outlook persists unless sustained positive momentum emerges.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KwP2faHKXJeUDnwJ1EDF-gC6E2uq2ea5/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!